Knowledge that Transforms

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Abstract Does distrust in politically affiliated media induce a bias in investor beliefs? We study the acquisition of Dow Jones & Co. by News Corporation in 2007 as a shock to the political affiliation of Dow Jones outlets. Following the acquisition, the prices of Republican- (Democrat-) aligned stocks become less sensitive to favorable (unfavorable) Dow Jones Newswires (DJNW) sentiment, consistent with the market attaching less credibility to a politically affiliated source. There is, however, no evidence of change in DJNW sentiment, coverage, or language about Republican/Democrat stocks, suggesting a loss of stock price informativeness. Consistent with this view, a portfolio exploiting the attenuated reaction to DJNW news earns abnormal returns following 2007.

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Abstract We examine how Confucian culture operates as an informal institution by fostering relational contracts that substitute for formal legal frameworks in shaping corporate behavior. Using data on historical Confucian academies near firms’ headquarters in China, we find that greater cultural exposure is associated with higher investment in stakeholder relationships—measured by social contribution, stakeholder protection, courtesy expenses, patenting, and trade credit. These effects persist after controlling for human capital and alternative cultural influences, and weaken in regions with stronger formal institutions. Our findings highlight the enduring role of culture in supporting trust-based governance when formal contracting is limited.

Abstract In contrast to the “lazy prices” phenomenon in the stock market, more 10-K textual changes lead to larger increases in volatility smirks—consistent with options traders buying more out-of-the-money put options based on negative information disclosed in textual changes. Moreover, the lazy-prices effect is mainly driven by stocks with tradable options, suggesting that limits to arbitrage lead to a delayed response of stock prices. Finally, the return predictability of textual changes is stronger for stocks with larger option volatility smirk changes. Sophisticated options traders, therefore, demonstrate superior skills at extracting relevant information from public filings.

Abstract Using the Credit Rating Agency Reform Act of 2006, we examine the effect of the credibility of mandatory disclosure by credit rating agencies (CRAs) on market feedback. We find an increase in investment-price sensitivity for firms affected by the act, and the increase is enhanced when managers have greater incentives to glean information from prices—when firms are exposed to multiple dimensions of uncertainty, have higher growth options, face more competition, have less informed managers, or have higher accounting fraud risk. Our findings suggest that the greater credibility of CRA mandatory disclosure improves managerial learning from stock prices.

Abstract Housing and human capital represent two major forms of household wealth. This article investigates the potential for housing speculation to crowd out household investment in children’s education, an endeavor that only pays off in the long run. To address endogeneity concerns, we exploit the unintended spillover effect of staggered house purchase restrictions (HPR) in China. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that HPR reduce educational investment of households in nearby unregulated cities. We also provide evidence consistent with a housing speculation channel. These findings shed new light on the socioeconomic consequences of housing market booms.

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Abstract Expected returns on market volatility, which can be obtained from VIX futures prices in closed form using standard models, positively predict subsequent realized volatility returns. Volatility returns are negative on average. Following increases in volatility, expected volatility returns and subsequent realized volatility returns become more negative. Because realized volatility returns are negatively correlated with index returns, expected volatility returns also negatively predict S&P 500 index returns, but these results are less significant. The results are robust to a wide range of variations in the empirical setup and to small-sample biases.

Abstract We study the classical relationship between a firm’s investment and q , for which an unobserved persistent shock is an important factor in the investment decision. In our setting, besides the potential measurement problem of q , controlling for the unobserved shock becomes a new challenge. We develop an estimation method that addresses both econometric issues given timing and information set assumptions. Using 16,256 unique public firms in the United States from 1975 to 2021, we find that q remains a significant factor of investment even after controlling for the unobserved shock and measurement error.