Knowledge that Transforms

Using comprehensive account-level data, we separate Chinese retail investors into 5 groups and document strong heterogeneity in trading dynamics and performances. Retail investors with smaller account sizes cannot predict future returns correctly, display daily momentum patterns, fail to process public news, and show overconfidence and gambling preferences, while retail investors with larger account balances predict future returns correctly, display contrarian patterns, and incorporate public news in trading. Using performance measures established in previous literature, we find that smaller retail investors suffer from poor stock selection abilities and trading costs, while large retail investors’ stock selection abilities are offset by trading costs.

The credit default swap (CDS) Big Bang introduced 2 standard coupons for CDS trading. We exploit the setting of the 2 standard coupons as a natural experiment to quantify the components of the bid–ask spreads in over-the-counter markets. We find that a significant portion of the difference in the bid–ask spread between the 2 coupons is explained by the difference in funding costs. Furthermore, search intensity also explains the variation in the difference in bid–ask spread. The liquidity typically concentrates on one of the standard coupons and can suddenly switch to the other coupon. Using the sudden switch of the primary coupon, we provide further evidence to support the predictions of search-based liquidity models.

We examine a link between bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) creation and redemption processes and the underlying bond market liquidity. Using daily creation and redemption data, we find that including a bond in a creation or redemption basket has a favorable impact on the bond’s liquidity for both high-yield and investment-grade markets. The improvement in liquidity persists during times of market stress with this impact being stronger for redemptions than creations. Our results suggest that ETF mispricing arbitrage explains the improvement in bond liquidity. However, we also find evidence that transaction costs and bond inventory management limit the ETF arbitrage.

Using a unique data set of firms listed on China’s Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we show that investors’ corporate site visits convey information about future stock returns. Firms with abnormally frequent investor visits predictably outperform firms with abnormally infrequent investor visits by approximately 70-to-100 basis points per month. This return predictability concentrates on neglected firms with low trading volumes and when investors incur higher travel costs. Abnormally frequent investor visits accompany increased holdings among visiting institutions and predict improvements in firms’ fundamental performance, consistent with institutions using visits to gain an information advantage regarding underpriced firms. The significance of conducting site visits and in-depth research by fund companies is to consistently deliver stable and substantial returns to clients through professional expertise. (Lei Jing, CEO of Harvest Fund Management Co., Ltd., China)

This paper studies the market microstructure implications of uninformed trading volume. We capture uninformed volume using spikes in retail trading triggered by weekly advertisements (ads) in the Wall Street Journal that are largely duplicates. We report three findings. First, consistent with a positive volume-volatility relation, stock price volatility amplifies on recurring ad days. Second, informed investors time liquidity to trade more aggressively on recurring ad days. Third, despite the increase in informed trading on such days, price impact is lower, yielding a negative volume–price impact relation. Collectively, the evidence supports the theoretical predictions of Collin-Dufresne and Fos (2016).

We document an increase in market power for politically active firms during times of heightened policy uncertainty, when their information and influence advantage is greater. The effect is long-lasting and stronger for large politically active firms. We show that relatively large investments during high uncertainty periods serve as a potential mechanism for gains in market power. Industries populated with politically active firms experience lower business dynamism and import penetration, consistent with active firms leveraging investment timing to restrict competition. Results suggest that political activism is a likely contributing factor to the dominance of large firms over the last two decades.

This study examines whether and how corporate venture capital (CVC) spurs changes in firm scope. Using two text-based measures of firm scope, I provide evidence that CVC investments are strongly correlated with subsequent changes in firm scope among CVC parent firms, including seeding emerging businesses and creating new segments or divisions. Further evidence is consistent with an experimentation view, with more promising ventures having a stronger strategic impact on the scope changes of parent firms. Moreover, the study finds that post-CVC scope changes are primarily built internally and rarely involve killer acquisitions. These changes create value for CVC parents.

Using establishment-level data, we show that COVID-19 vaccinations boost business activity and firm performance in the United States. A 10-percent increase in vaccination rates results in a 4-percent to 6-percent increase in customer visits. We document the channels through which vaccinations increase store visits and the limits to the effect of vaccines on business activity. At the firm level, vaccinations increase sales and earnings, impact expansion decisions, and decrease probability of default, but the benefits vary across businesses. Vaccinations create private economic benefits to firms, shareholders, and employees, in addition to their intended public health benefits.

Financial losses can have persistent effects on the financial system. This article proposes an empirical measure for the duration of these effects, Spillover Persistence. I document that Spillover Persistence is strongly correlated with financial conditions; during banking crises, Spillover Persistence is higher, whereas in the run-up phase of stock market bubbles, it is lower. Lower Spillover Persistence also associates with a more fragile system, for example, a higher probability of future crises, consistent with the volatility paradox. The results emphasize the dynamics of loss spillovers as an important dimension of systemic risk and financial constraints as a key determinant of persistence.

Using the macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, we construct a comprehensive macro condition index that summarizes subjective expectations of output, inflation, and labor and housing market conditions. The index predicts stock returns and produces countercyclical equity premium forecasts, both in- and out-of-sample. Our results contrast with the procyclical subjective equity premia documented in recent literature. We show that the index reflects the true but unobserved macroeconomic condition that impacts the equity premium. Moreover, the predictability is not affected by belief biases and operates via a discount rate channel. The index’s predictability conforms to an explanation based on time-varying risk premia.