This article provides evidence that firm value declines when credit default swaps (CDSs) are initiated and that the effect is greater when CDS trading activity is higher. This decline, which arises from an increase in the cost of capital as opposed to a decrease in free cash flows, traces to a deterioration in the firm’s credit quality and stock liquidity. Firm value declines less when CDS trading is likely to produce incremental information, suggesting that CDS trading has informational benefits for firm value. However, the evidence does not indicate that firm value increases because CDS availability facilitates investments

With the recent significant growth in the single-name credit default swap (CDS) market has come the need for accurate and computationally efficient models to value these instruments. While the model developed by Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000) can be used, the solution is numerical (solving a series of ordinary differential equations) rather than explicit. In this paper, we provide an explicit solution to the valuation of a credit default swap when the interest rate and the hazard rate are correlated by using the “change of measure” approach and solving a bivariate Riccati equation. CDS transaction data for the period 2/15/2000 through 4/8/2003 for 60 firms are used to test both the goodness of fit of the model and provide estimates of the influence of economic variables in the market for credit-risky bonds

In this article, we examine the extent to which firm fundamentals can explain the cross-sectional variation in credit default swap (CDS) spreads. We construct a fundamental CDS valuation by combining the Merton distance-to-default measure with a long list of firm fundamentals via a Bayesian shrinkage method. Regressing CDS quotes against the fundamental valuation cross-sectionally generates an average R 2 of 77%. The explanatory power is stable over time and robust in out-of-sample tests. Deviations between market quotes and the valuation predict future market movements. The results highlight the important role played by firm fundamentals in differentiating the credit spreads of different firms

We study the effect of credit default swaps (CDSs) on the bond market. Using a comprehensive sample of U.S. corporate bonds, we document that the presence of CDSs significantly increases bond liquidity and reduces yield spreads for investment grade bonds. We show that CDSs influence the bond market by lowering the impact of fire sales of institutional bondholders and facilitating inventory management for bond dealers who absorb fire sale shocks. However, the liquidity provision role of CDSs gets weakened after the CDS Big Bang in 2009, potentially because of the requirement of large upfront payments

This article provides evidence that equity returns lead credit protection returns at daily and weekly frequencies, whereas credit protection returns do not lead equity returns. Our results indicate that informed traders are primarily active in the equity market rather than the credit default swap (CDS) market. These findings are consistent with standard theories of market selection by informed traders in which market selection is determined partially by transaction costs. We also find that credit protection returns respond more quickly during salient news events (earnings announcements) compared to days with similar equity returns and turnover. This evidence provides support for explanations related to investor inattention

Rather than assuming a fixed recovery rate in estimation, we estimate recovery rates from credit default swap spreads, using 3 years of daily data on 152 corporations. We use a quadratic pricing model, which ensures nonnegative default probabilities and recovery rates. The estimated cross section of recovery rates is plausible, with an average recovery rate of 54% and substantial cross-sectional variation. Estimated 5-year default probabilities are on average 67% higher than default probabilities obtained using the standard 40% recovery assumption. This finding critically impacts the valuation of structured credit products. Larger firms and firms with more tangible assets have higher recovery rates

We study trading and risk management decisions of banks in over-the-counter markets, accounting for 2 types of risk: payoff risk from loans and counterparty risk from trading activities. Our model provides empirically supported predictions on the structure of the interbank credit default swap (CDS) market: i) banks with high default probabilities either buy or sell CDS contracts; ii) because of the counterparty risk friction, payoff risk is only partially shared; and iii) safe banks act as intermediaries and help diversify counterparty risk. Banks manage their default probabilities to become creditworthy counterparties, but they do so in a socially inefficient way

We study the impact of stronger shareholder control on bondholders. We find that the passage of shareholder-sponsored governance proposals causes a decline in credit default swap spreads, indicating a net positive effect on bondholders. Evidence suggests that the direct benefit of stronger shareholder control, through the “management disciplining” channel, is larger than the combined adverse effects of directly escalating shareholder-bondholder conflict and indirectly exacerbating exposure to shareholder opportunism. Results are stronger for firms with existing high levels of shareholder-bondholder conflict and for proposals that mitigate managerial entrenchment without exacerbating risk-shifting. Finally, stronger shareholder control improves credit ratings and operating performance in the long-term

There is widespread agreement that corporate debts’ recovery rates are time varying, but empirical work in this area is limited. We show that the joint information from the term structure of senior and subordinate credit default swaps can identify the level and the dynamics of recovery rates. We estimate a reduced-form no-arbitrage model on 46 firms across different industries. We find that the term structure of expected recovery rates is, on average, downward sloping. However, an inversion occurs during the 2008 crisis, suggesting the market expects higher recoveries conditional on short-term survival. The inversion is more pronounced for firms in distressed industries

We provide new empirical evidence that U.S. expected growth and consumption volatility are closely related to the strong comovement in sovereign spreads. We rationalize these findings in an equilibrium model with recursive utility for credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The framework links a reduced-form default process with country-specific sensitivity to expected growth and macroeconomic uncertainty. Exploiting the high-frequency information in the CDS term structure across 38 countries, we estimate the model and find parameters consistent with preference for early resolution of uncertainty. Our results confirm the existence of time-varying risk premia in sovereign spreads as compensation for exposure to common U.S. macroeconomic risk