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On the Presence of Speculative Bubbles in Stock Prices

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1990 25(1), 101
We examine empirically the existence of speculative bubbles in U.S. stock prices and, by building on West's procedure, propose direct and computationally simple tests of the “nobubble” hypothesis. These tests are likely to be close to their nominal size in small samples and to have small sample power against a wide class of bubbles including those orthogonal to the dividend process. We apply the tests to long-term annual U.S. stock market data for the 1871–1981 and 1871–1988 periods. Contrary to West, we do not reject the “no-bubble” hypothesis. We offer an explanation as to the cause of discrepancy between the two results.

Determinants of International Buyout Investments

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2023 58(2), 875-913
Using a proprietary data set on international private equity activity, we study the determinants of buyout investments across 61 countries and 19 industries over the period of 1990 to 2017. We find that countries with cyclically strong economies, more active stock and credit markets, and better rule of law experience more buyout activity. Countries also receive more buyout capital following investor protection and contract enforcement reforms. The set of determinants we identify appear somewhat unique to buyout investments, because other forms of investment such as foreign direct investment, gross capital formation, investments in R&D, and M&A activity do not respond similarly to these factors.