Knowledge that Transforms

Peter R. Locke, Asani Sarkar, Lifan Wu, Market Liquidity and Trader Welfare in Multiple Dealer Markets: Evidence from Dual Trading Restrictions, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Mar., 1999), pp. 57-88

It is now widely held that stock prices are too volatile to be optimal forecasts of future dividends discounted at a constant rate. Using the present value model with a constant discount rate, we show that when there is memory in the duration of dividend swings, the stock price can move in a more volatile fashion than could be warranted by future dividend movements. The memory in the duration of a dividend swing will lead economic agents to time the swing, thereby generating a spurious bias in the stock price. When memory is strong, this spurious bias becomes significant and induces excess volatility in the stock price as if rational bubbles exist. The Efficient Method of Moments (EMM) procedure is used to examine the long swings property in the dividend series. We cannot reject the hypothesis of a strong memory in the dividend swings, and show that excess volatility, even in large samples, can be generated through simulation.

Chunsheng Zhou, Informational Asymmetry and Market Imperfections: Another Solution to the Equity Premium Puzzle, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 34, No. 4 (Dec., 1999), pp. 445-464

This paper obtains equilibrium interest rate option prices for discontinuous short-term in? terest rate processes. The prices are first obtained for a general distribution of jump sizes using a process with a number of fixed size jumps. The pricing formulas are then used to obtain option prices when the jump distribution is known to be one of the continuous dis? tributions. The commonly used jump-diffusion, stochastic volatility jump-diffusion, and Gamma process option prices can be obtained as limiting cases. The methodology is also applied to obtain the prices of options on stocks. Finally, the paper shows how portfolios to hedge derivative securities can be built.

This paper provides an explanation for the widespread use of traditional securities by well-established firms. Standard moral hazard models predict that equity, debt, and warrants are almost never optimal financing instruments. I show that issuing these securities is, nevertheless, nearly optimal: the issuer would gain very little by using non-traditional securities instead. Combined with equity, one debt issue (without multiple layers of seniority) and one warrant issue (without multiple exercise prices) suffice to achieve near optimality. The near optimality of traditional financing depends crucially on the issuer's ability to use warrants in addition to debt and equity.

We distinguish among the signaling, free cash flow, and wealth transfer hypotheses in explaining the stock price reaction to specially designated dividend (SDD) announcements. In a direct test of the signaling power of SDDs, we find both a larger stock price reaction and a significant upward revision of earnings forecasts for firms with Tobin's q less than one, but not for other firms. Our results support the conditional signaling hypothesis, which predicts greater effects of favorable information for low q firms. Taken together, our results for stock price effects and earnings forecast revisions do not support either the free cash flow or wealth transfer hypotheses.

Frank de Jong, Pedro Santa-Clara, The Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve: A Formulation with State Variables, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Mar., 1999), pp. 131-157

Samuelson called accepting a sequence of independent positive mean bets that are individually unacceptable a fallacy of large numbers, and subsequent researchers have extended Samuelson's condition on utility functions to assure that they would not allow this fallacy. By contrast, some behavioralists, arguing the merits of diversification, believe that it is simply wrong headed to refuse a long series of independent “good” bets out of a misguided faith in expected utility theory. Contrary to what one might infer from the literature, this paper shows that accepting sequences of good bets is both consistent with expected utility theory and quite usual.

Philip J. Lee, Stephen L. Taylor, Terry S. Walter, IPO Underpricing Explanations: Implications from Investor Application and Allocation Schedules, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 34, No. 4 (Dec., 1999), pp. 425-444

This paper examines the pricing of lookback and barrier options when the underlying asset follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. We construct a trinomial method to approximate the CEV process and use it to price lookback and barrier options. For look-back options, we find that the technique proposed by Babbs for the lognormal case can be modified to value lookbacks when the asset price follows the CEV process. We demonstrate the accuracy of our approach for different parameter values of the CEV process. We find that the prices of barrier and lookback options for the CEV process deviate significantly from those for the lognormal process. For standard options, the corresponding differences between the CEV and Black-Scholes models are relatively small. Our results show that it is much more important to have the correct model specification for options that depend on extrema than for standard options.