Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract We develop a capital structure model in which firms differ in their ability to adjust output prices. Firms with inflexible prices are more exposed to nominal and real shocks, leading to lower leverage, shorter debt maturity, higher cost of debt, tighter covenants, and greater precautionary cash holdings. Shocks to cash flow volatility raise the cost of debt more for firms with less pricing flexibility. We empirically confirm these predictions: Firms with inflexible prices experience significantly larger increases in credit spreads following monetary policy shocks and the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, especially when they face high preshock rollover risk.

Abstract We exploit heterogeneity in decreasing returns to scale (DRS) parameters across mutual funds to analyze the importance of scalability for investors’ capital allocation decisions. We find strong evidence that steeper DRS attenuate flow sensitivity to performance. We calibrate a rational model of active fund management and show that a large fraction of cross-sectional variation in assets-under-management is due to investors anticipating the effects of scale on return performance. We conclude that DRS play a key role in achieving equilibrium in the intermediated investment management market.

Abstract This article studies the making of return predictability among economically linked firms. I characterize an asymmetric cross-firm tug-of-war: i) High peer overnight returns are followed by elevated overnight returns for focal stocks, which fully reverse during intraday, and ii) high peer intraday returns are followed by high intraday returns but minor overnight price reactions. This pattern aligns with the story that individuals’ persistent trading on salient information distorts opening prices, while slow-moving arbitrage by professional investors gradually corrects mispricing. Mutual fund and hedge fund flows exhibit distinct associations with the tug-of-war, supporting the hypothesis that heterogeneous demand drives the return predictability.

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An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Abstract Filing agents—intermediaries used by 80% of U.S. firms—are associated with leakage of information that affects stock prices. Prior to the public release of a securities filing, most firms outsource the final processing and submission of the filing to a third-party filing agent. We find leakage is higher when firms use filing agents than when firms self-file, particularly pre-2018. Leakage is greater when the private information is more valuable and decreases when firms switch to self-filing. Our research suggests filing agents, and a firm’s choice to use them, are an important, understudied channel for the leakage of private information.

Abstract This article presents a New Keynesian model to capture the linkages between macro fundamentals and the nominal yield curve. The model explains bond yields with a low level of news in expected inflation and plausible term premia. This implies that the slope of the yield curve predicts future bond yields and that risk-adjusted historical bond yields satisfy the expectations hypothesis. The model also explains the spanning puzzle, matches key moments for real bond yields, captures the evolution of the price-dividend ratio, and implies that the slope of the yield curve and the price-dividend ratio forecast excess equity returns.