Knowledge that Transforms

This paper studies the diffusion of regional macroeconomic information into stock prices. I identify all U.S. states that are economically relevant for a company through textual analysis of annual reports and find that economic activity forecasts of company-relevant regions positively predict cross-sectional stock returns. Information arising from all relevant states is more important than that relating to the headquarter state alone. These forecasts also predict firms’ performance and earnings surprises, suggesting that the return predictability stems from future cash flows that are gradually reflected in prices. Finally, regional information takes longer to be incorporated into prices among difficult-to-arbitrage stocks.

Using a sample of over 9,000 buyback announcements from 31 non-U.S. countries, we find support for the results of studies based on U.S. data: On average, share repurchases are associated with significant positive short- and long-term excess returns. However, excess returns depend on the likelihood of undervaluation and the efficiency and liquidity of equity markets. In contrast to findings in U.S. markets, we do not find that these long-term excess returns are simply a compensation for takeover risk or have become less significant in recent years.

This article investigates the impact of political uncertainty on contractual lending terms using a large sample of syndicated loans and a within-firm estimation approach to achieve identification. Firms pay 7 basis points (bps) more on loans originated when their lenders are undergoing an election relative to when their lenders are not undergoing an election. Lenders from less financially developed countries are more likely to pass political uncertainty costs to borrowers. Consistent with electoral uncertainty driving this premium, the most contested elections have the largest impact (17 bps). Overall, political uncertainty leads to a tangible increase in firms’ financing costs.