Knowledge that Transforms

Financial losses can have persistent effects on the financial system. This article proposes an empirical measure for the duration of these effects, Spillover Persistence. I document that Spillover Persistence is strongly correlated with financial conditions; during banking crises, Spillover Persistence is higher, whereas in the run-up phase of stock market bubbles, it is lower. Lower Spillover Persistence also associates with a more fragile system, for example, a higher probability of future crises, consistent with the volatility paradox. The results emphasize the dynamics of loss spillovers as an important dimension of systemic risk and financial constraints as a key determinant of persistence.

Corporate bonds’ book-to-market ratios predict returns computed from transaction prices. Senior bonds (even investment grade) with the 20% highest ratios outperform the 20% lowest by 3%–4% annually after non-parametrically controlling for numerous liquidity, default, microstructure, and priced-risk attributes: yield-to-maturity, bid–ask spread, duration/maturity, credit spread/rating, past returns, coupon, size, age, industry, and structural model equity hedges. Spreads for all-bond samples are larger. An efficient bond market would not exhibit the observed decay in the ratio’s predictive efficacy with implementation delays, small yield-to-maturity spreads, or similar-sized spreads across bonds with differing risks. A methodological innovation avoids liquidity filters and censorship that bias returns.

We show non-financial corporations changed the quantity and composition of their bond issues in response to the European Central Bank’s corporate quantitative easing program. Eligible issuers shifted toward bonds meeting the program’s eligibility requirements. Moreover, demand for credit risk increased, and risk premia in the bond market dropped after the announcement. Eligible and ineligible firms increased total issuance and shifted toward bonds with riskier characteristics, namely unsecured and non-guaranteed bonds. Total issuance increased the most among those firms that were most exposed to the decline in risk premia. Firms also shifted away from short-maturity instruments and issued more fixed-coupon bonds.

Using the macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, we construct a comprehensive macro condition index that summarizes subjective expectations of output, inflation, and labor and housing market conditions. The index predicts stock returns and produces countercyclical equity premium forecasts, both in- and out-of-sample. Our results contrast with the procyclical subjective equity premia documented in recent literature. We show that the index reflects the true but unobserved macroeconomic condition that impacts the equity premium. Moreover, the predictability is not affected by belief biases and operates via a discount rate channel. The index’s predictability conforms to an explanation based on time-varying risk premia.

We proxy retail investor attention through Google Trends and find that fungible and non-fungible crypto tokens generate greater attention from high-gambling propensity regions. Crypto attention is higher during bubble-like episodes in the crypto market and for more lottery-like tokens. Moreover, retail crypto attention decreases after sports gambling is legalized. Higher token attention is associated with more contributors and higher fundraising. However, consumer credit default rates spike after periods of high crypto attention, but solely in the subprime segment. Overall, our findings suggest that gambling preferences strongly predict retail investor interest in the crypto market.

We document spillover effects of government policies promoting capital investment on household financial choices and wealth accumulation. Using individual-level data on employment outcomes and household balance sheets, we find that increase in accelerated depreciation limits increases the layoff probability of routine workers and reduces their stock share of liquid wealth relative to non-routine workers. Background risk due to the policy is mitigated when workers have access to generous unemployment insurance benefits. Finally, we show that such portfolio rebalancing adversely impacts investment returns and the wealth accumulation of routine workers.

To protect inframarginal rents, rivals react to competition shocks by increasing product differentiation or lowering costs by standardizing products and production processes. We test these two mutually exclusive reactions by exploiting changes in rivals’ idiosyncratic stock return comovement following significant tariff cuts. While increased product differentiation implies a reduction in return comovement, greater standardization implies the opposite (a comovement increase). Difference-in-differences (DID) tests indicate that tariff cuts cause a significant increase in return comovement—in particular among within-industry “followers.” Treatment effects on cash flows, product counts, similarity scores, and business segment counts further support cost-cutting strategies.

Long-term growth expectations are central to investment analysis and corporate valuation. Despite a dominant effect on firm value, the academic literature and practitioner conventions provide little guidance on determining this long-term growth rate. This article takes a step in addressing this gap: we estimate the relationship between long-term growth and an extensive selection of firm, industry, and market characteristics. Market prices do not seem to fully capture long-term growth information. Cross sectional tests yield substantial positive abnormal returns for firms with high expected long-term growth.

Stock-market effectiveness in attracting and retaining firms under public ownership depends not only on stand-alone firms’ net listing benefits but also on gains from merging with a public acquirer. Using a novel merger-adjusted listing count, we show that the dramatic (≈50%) post-1996 U.S. listing decline—often attributed to declining listing benefits—is reversed as the “missing” firms de facto continue existing inside their public acquirers. Our merger adjustment also eliminates the U.S. listing gap, pointing instead to a distinct U.S. listing advantage: providing access to a well-functioning market for complex merger transactions.

A firm’s role as lender to its customers (via trade credit) is influenced by the firm’s own lenders. With a novel data set of trade credit between U.S. public companies, I find that firms limit customer credit concentrations, extending less generous trade credit to customers as the firms’ sales dependence on them increases. Evidence points to lenders influencing firms to limit credit concentrations: First, cross-sectional variation shows stronger results with greater lender monitoring intensity. Second, analysis of granular loan contract details reveals that concentration limits in borrowing base formulas are a clear, previously unexplored way banks influence trade credit policies.