Knowledge that Transforms

This article presents a New Keynesian model to capture the linkages between macro fundamentals and the nominal yield curve. The model explains bond yields with a low level of news in expected inflation and plausible term premia. This implies that the slope of the yield curve predicts future bond yields and that risk-adjusted historical bond yields satisfy the expectations hypothesis. The model also explains the spanning puzzle, matches key moments for real bond yields, captures the evolution of the price-dividend ratio, and implies that the slope of the yield curve and the price-dividend ratio forecast excess equity returns.

This study investigates how political patronage influences local firms’ investment decisions in China, focusing on changes in patronage ties resulting from provincial leadership turnover. By examining prefectural officials with connections to their provincial superiors, we find that firms in these regions experience increased investment expenditures, albeit with reduced efficiency. This effect is primarily driven by stronger promotion incentives for local officials, bolstered by favoritism from provincial patrons. While political patronage helps address agency problems within political hierarchies, our findings highlight its adverse economic impact due to misaligned interests between politicians and the public.

We study the role of competition in customers’ reactions to litigation against firms, using anonymized mobile phone location data. A class action lawsuit filing is followed by a 4% average reduction in customer visits to target firms’ outlets in the following months. The effect strongly depends on competition. Outlets facing more competition experience significantly larger negative effects. Closer competition matters more, both in terms of geographic and industry proximity. Announcement returns and quarterly accounting revenues around lawsuit filings also strongly depend on competition. Our results suggest that competition is an important component in customers’ ability to discipline firms for misbehavior.

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We examine the preopening process and price discovery from the offer price to the first open price in initial public offerings. The extent of price discovery during preopening is influenced by firm characteristics and preopening attributes, such as volume of shares executed in preopening, canceled orders, order imbalance, and changes in indicative price. Institutional investors cancel 4 orders for every executed order. Each phase of preopening contributes to incremental price discovery. In “hot” IPOs, almost all price discovery processes occur during preopening, whereas in “cold” IPOs, half of the price adjustment occurs after the market opens.

Using close to 800,000 transactions by 66,000 households in the United States and close to 2,000,000 transactions by 303,000 households in Finland, this paper shows that, on average, individual investors with longer holding periods choose to hold less liquid stocks in their portfolios. The relationship between holding periods and transaction costs is stronger among more financially sophisticated households. We confirm our findings by analyzing changes in investors’ holding periods around exogenous shocks to stock liquidity. Our findings challenge the notion that individual investors ignore non-salient costs when making investment decisions and suggest that they are cognizant of the cost of trading stocks.

We investigate whether compensation consultants recommend excessive pay to earn repeat business by studying consultant changes. Our results show consultants’ interests are aligned with shareholders’ to appropriately pay the CEO. Boards dismiss consultants making large pay recommendation errors, particularly positive ones. However, powerful or poorly monitored CEOs interfere with such disciplinary turnover, weakening the relation. Peer groups are more likely to change with new consultant appointments. New consultants are less likely to include highly paid executives in the compensation peer group and CEO pay falls following the change. Directors earn higher votes in annual elections when they replace compensation advisors.

We identify a parsimonious set of factors from a large pool of candidates for explaining hedge fund returns, ranging from equity market, anomaly, and trend-following factors to macroeconomic factors. The resulting 9-factor model, including five anomaly factors, outperforms existing hedge fund models both in sample and out of sample, with a significant reduction in alphas while showing substantial cross sectional performance heterogeneity. Further analysis based on fund holdings confirms the model’s ability to capture returns from arbitrage trading. Overall, the anomaly factors help quantify hedge fund strategies and risk exposures and improve fund performance evaluation.

We document firms often determine CEO equity grants based on a predetermined dollar value (value-based equity grant) instead of on the number of shares (share-based grant). Value-based equity grants weaken the relationship between stock performance and CEO equity pay, lower CEO portfolio delta, and slow firms’ investment in R&D. We find that retention pressure is a key reason for the use of value-based equity pay, while governance could also matter. Overall, this paper alerts boards to the unintended consequences of pursuing a target pay level or pay structure because such practices can lead to value-based equity grants in CEO compensation.

We find that a corrupt local environment amplifies the effects of financial distress. Following regional spikes in financial misconduct, credit becomes more difficult to obtain for local borrowers—even those not implicated themselves. This is particularly harmful for cash-constrained firms, which cut investment more sharply and lay off more workers during industry downturns. We also find that local clustering of financial misconduct is a risk factor for bankruptcy.