Knowledge that Transforms

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Abstract Internal finance leads to a stalemate in innovation games; each firm wants to free-ride on the others’ costly experimentation. When instead innovation is financed externally (e.g., with venture capital or initial public offerings), there is an endogenous cost to delay. Waiting to make risky irreversible investment conveys pessimistic information. I characterize the relative sizes of waves of leaders and followers in innovation cycles, and the endogenous, intertemporal distribution of quality as each wave builds and crashes. Finally, old waves leave an adverse selection “hangover,” such that too much early innovation can cause the market for future innovation to break down.

We model the employee incentive problem jointly with a firm’s exit decision. Our model predicts that firms in industries where human capital is important are more likely to go public and use high-powered, stock-based compensation. We also show that the higher the management quality, the more likely a firm is to go public than to be acquired. Regarding life cycle, a firm with high capital intensity and/or high management quality will choose to go public at a younger age.

We conduct a comprehensive comparison of market beta estimation techniques. We study the performance of several historical, time-series model, and option-implied estimators for estimating realized market beta. Thereby, we find the hybrid methodology of Buss and Vilkov to consistently outperform all other approaches. In addition, all other approaches, including fully implied and dynamic conditional beta, based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, are dominated by a simple beta estimate based on historical (co-)variances and an approach based on the Kalman filter. Our conclusions remain unchanged after performing several robustness checks.

Abstract We analyze the profitability of government-owned banks’ lending to their owners, using a unique data set of relatively homogeneous government-owned banks; the banks are all owned by similarly structured local governments in a single country. Making use of a natural experiment that altered the regulatory and competitive environment, we find evidence that such lending was used to transfer revenues from the banks to the governments. Some of the evidence is particularly pronounced in localities where the incumbent politicians face significant competition for reelection.

Abstract We show that the currency risk embedded in the benchmarks of international mutual funds negatively affects fund performance. More specifically, a high benchmark-implied currency risk induces funds to invest in markets with less volatile currencies, leading to a higher degree of currency concentration in portfolio holdings. This currency concentration, however, departs from the optimal equity allocation strategy across countries and reduces fund performance. We document that funds resorting to high currency concentrations underperform funds with low currency concentrations by as much as 1%–2% per year.

The finance literature documents a relation between labor income and the cross section of stock returns. One possible explanation for this is the hedging decisions of investors with relative wealth concerns. This implies a negative risk premium associated with stock returns correlated with local undiversifiable wealth because investors are willing to pay more for stocks that help their hedging goals. We find evidence that is consistent with these regularities. In addition, we show that the effect varies across geographic areas depending on the size and variability of undiversifiable wealth, proxied by labor income.

We use data from 2005–2009 that uniquely identify categories of traders to test how speculators such as hedge funds and swap dealers relate to volatility and price changes. In examining various subperiods where price trends are strong, we find little evidence that speculators destabilize financial markets. To the contrary, hedge fund position changes are negatively related to volatility in corn, crude oil, and natural gas futures markets. Additionally, swap dealer activity is largely unrelated to contemporaneous volatility. Our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that hedge funds provide valuable liquidity and largely serve to stabilize futures markets.

Outside board chairs are more likely in firms that are smaller, have greater stock volatility and research and development intensity, and have a lower proportion of inside directors and less institutional ownership; they are also more likely when chief executive officers have shorter tenure and lower ownership. We also find that the existence of an outside chair is associated with geographical and industry norms. An outside chair is positively associated with firm performance, a finding robust to various estimation methods, including event study and multivariate analyses incorporating controls for endogeneity, as well as market and accounting measures of performance. We note, however, that the relationship between outside chair and firm performance varies with firm characteristics.