Knowledge that Transforms

The following proof of Modigliani and Miller's (MM) [2] famous propositions concerning the valuation of the firm and the cost of capital does not require the usual risk-class or arbitrage assumptions; the proof depends only on the Fundamental Theorem of Parameter-preference, which states that the riskpremium for security A is a linear combination of its comoments with the market index, .

Edward J. Kane, Discussion: Duration and Portfolio Strategy, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 13, No. 4, Proceedings of Thirteenth Annual Conference of the Western Finance Association, June 20-26, 1978 (Nov., 1978), pp. 651-652

When a unit of a multinational corporation requires short-term funding, it normally has the opportunity to obtain funds from a number of different sources, both internal and external to the country where these funds will be deployed. The possibility exists for borrowing in a currency other than the local currency of the borrowing unit. The purpose of this paper is to find the optimal currency source or sources for such a loan, when the borrowing unit can enter the forward exchange market for a term equivalent to the time to maturity of the loan.

This paper is concerned with empirical measurement, analysis, and comparison of the returns expected by investors in U. S., German, French and Japanese equity markets. The expedited return to equity is a pivotal concept in capital market theory because of the concern of this theory with analyzing relationships between expected returns to the general market and expected returns to individual securities. Because the expected equity returns are not directly observable, the approach almost uniformly taken in the empirical testing of capital market theory is to make additional behavioral assumptions beyond those contained in the basic theory that enable it to be translated into an analysis of market relationships among ex-post returns. Empirical tests then become tests of both the basic theory and the appended assumptions. A new approach to the empirical testing of capital market relationships is to develop empirical approximations to the returns expected in the equity market, and to employ these expectational measures to directly test capital market relationships. This paper formulates and examines this approach. Empirical approximations of the expected equity return for a representative group of major international stock exchanges are formulated, estimated, and analyzed, leading to a direct test of the International Asset Pricing model in its original form.

In a recent article, Modigliani and Pogue [2] raised the issue of “leverage bias” in portfolio performance measures. Specifically, they contended that the value of the Jensen's alpha (α) could be affected by borrowing or lending at the risk-free rate, while the Treynor index (TI) does not suffer from this shortcoming. They illustrated this effect through the use of a graphical example similar to the one in Exhibit I where A and B are two unlevered portfolios with the same α's but different TI's. Modigliani and Pogue argued that by leveraging, i.e., borrowing at Rf, the portfolio with the greater slope (TI), A, could attain a levered portfolio AL which clearly dominates portfolio B. In other L words, the line with the higher TI will dominate the line with a lower TI regardless of α values. This seems to imply that, in general, TI is a better measure of ex post portfolio performance, and that ranking based on TI's is consistent and invariant to the leverage effect, while ranking based on a's is not.

This paper is a pioneering effort in the examination of the workings of rationality and efficiency in capital markets. The central theme of the paper is the notion of informational efficiency in markets for durable assets. In its broadest terms this imposes a behavioral constraint on the intertemporal development of the asset markets; in a perfect market the development of the equilibrium over time must not be self-contradictory. Individual agents' anticipations of future developments determine their current actions and these, in turn, determine equilibrium prices. But, tomorrow the process will be repeated and it is at this second step that the possibility of conflict enters. The future development need not fulfill precisely people's previous anticipations, but in a perfectly functioning market it would be difficult to accept a blatant contradiction. To believe that prices are lognormally distributed, for example, and to have that belief generate the same equilibrium price period after period is such a contradiction.

Lanstein and Sharpe (LS) attempt to explain residual covariances between stocks on the basis of duration considerations. The results, by admission are mixed. Rather than to focus on these per se, I would like to further the work by making some suggestions with respect to the formal model development and the empirical tests-on the basis that both could be made crisper and thereby increase the value of what already is a contribution.

Michael D. Joehnk, H. Russell Fogler, Charles E. Bradley, The Price Elasticity of Discounted Bonds: Some Empirical Evidence, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 13, No. 3 (Sep., 1978), pp. 559-566

The purpose of this paper is to provide evidence that the Bureau of the Census' X–ll program for seasonal adjustment [3] overstates the incidence of seasonality in some forms of times series data. This problem arises in a recent study by Bonin and Moses [1] (hereafter B-M) indicating that 7 of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial stocks exhibited persistent seasonal patterns during the period July 1962 through June 1971.

This study presents theory and some exploratory empirical work on several separate strands of monetarism in an international context and reports the results of tests of the two interrelated hypotheses: (a) the United States' monetary expansion was responsible forthe exportation of inflation to the rest of the world during the period of generally fixed exchange rates that lasted from the end of World War II until August 1971 (followed by the Smithsonian revaluations and generalized floating in March 1973), and (b) foreign nations could not control their money supplies, even in the short run, to prevent importing inflation. Succinctly stated, the monetarist approach to macroeconomic phenomena holds that money is preeminent in determining the short-run shocks to real output and the long-run price level of an economy. However, received theory is simply not clear as to whose money is most important in an international context. Is it the domestic money stock which is kept relativelyindependent of foreign forces under fixed exchange rates through astute central bank policy, at least in the short run? Is it the rest of the world money stock which, under fixed exchange rates, is a close substitute for domestic money? Or is it the money stock of the so-called world's banker, the United States, which drives foreign economies? We address these issues and others in our empirical analysis.