Knowledge that Transforms

Signaling and agency cost theories of dividend policy predict that omissions will produce a larger average decline in equity values than will reductions of less than 100 percent. However, this paper identifies a U-shaped relation between announcement day risk-adjusted excess returns and the percentage decline in dividends. The significantly smaller than expected price reaction to dividend omissions cannot be traced to growth opportunities, nor to a tendency for firms to delay omission announcements. While omitting firms provide higher per share dividends within five years of the dividend action than do firms that severely reduce payments, future dividends are unrelated to the market's response.

This paper models the strategic pre-tender offer share acquisition problem faced by potential bidders in takeovers. The model provides a rational explanation for the seemingly anomalous empirical evidence that the information about the impending tender offers is not fully conveyed through the potential bidders' pre-tender offer trades and for the evidence that a large fraction of bidders do not hold any target shares prior to launching the tender offers. Additional testable implications are also provided.

This study applies an option pricing model to empirically derive pension put values for a sample of 176 individual pension plan sponsors insured by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). This study finds that the pension put values for a group of 22 underfunded sponsors were significantly greater than the insurance premiums paid to the PBGC. On the other hand, for a group of 154 overfunded sponsors, the put values were also greater than the pension premiums paid to the PBGC, although the difference was not statistically significant. These findings suggest that underfunded plan sponsors are significantly undercharged by the PBGC, while overfunded plan sponsors are approximately fairly charged.

The concern of this paper is with the effects of insider trading on ex ante managerial behavior. Specifically, the paper focuses on how insider trading affects insiders ' choice among investment projects. Other things equal, insider trading leads insiders to choose riskier investment projects, because increased volatility of results enables insiders to make greater trading profits if they learn these results in advance of the market. This effect might be beneficial, however, because insiders ' risk aversion pulls them toward a conservative investment policy. Insiders ' choices of projects are identified and compared with insider trading and those without such trading. Using these results, the conditions under which insider trading increases or decreases corporate value by affecting the choice of projects with uncertain returns are identified. I.

Matthew Richardson, Tom Smith, A Direct Test of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis: Measuring the Daily Flow of Information, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 1 (Mar., 1994), pp. 101-116

This paper illustrates regression and Kalman filtering methods for estimating the time-varying term structure of volatility expectations revealed by options prices. Short- and long-term expectations are estimated for four currencies using daily PHLX options prices from 1985 to 1989. Throughout this period, there were important differences between shortand long-term expectations. The slope of the term structure changed frequently and there were significant variations in long-term volatility expectations. The expectation estimates can be used to value OTC options, to improve hedging strategies, and to test the hypothesis that the options market overreacts.

From various empirical work, it is well known that the volatility of asset returns changes over time. This might be one of the reasons that implied volatilities differ for options that only differ in time to maturity. We construct models for the relation between short- and long-term implied volatilities based on three different assumptions of stock return volatility behavior, i.e., mean-reverting, GARCH, and EGARCH models. We test these relations on option price data and conclude that EGARCH gives the best description of asset prices and the term structure of options' implied volatilities.

F. Douglas Foster, S. Viswanathan, Strategic Trading with Asymmetrically Informed Traders and Long-Lived Information, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 29, No. 4 (Dec., 1994), pp. 499-518

This paper examines the relation between the market reaction to primary seasoned equity offerings and alternative measures of the profitability of the issuing firm's growth opportunities. While the sample offerings display a positive relation between announcement period prediction errors and several ex ante measures of growth opportunities, this relation is not monotonic and appears to be driven by a small subset of younger, higher growth firms, whose announcement effects are insignificantly different from zero. For the remainder of the sample firms, there is no relation between the estimated profitability of new investment and the market reaction to announced equity offerings. Moreover, announcement effects are nonpositive regardless of how profitable investment opportunities are expected to be. These findings collectively suggest that investment opportunities play, at best, a minor role in explaining the cross-sectional distribution of equity offering announcement effects.

A new testable implication is derived from the rational speculative bubbles model stating that the presence of bubbles implies positive duration dependence in runs of high returns. Specifically, the probability of observing an end to a run of high returns declines with the length of the run. Traditional duration dependence tests are adapted for use with discrete stock runs data and, consistent with the existence of bubbles, evidence of duration dependence in monthly real stock returns is found.