Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract This paper examines the style-based feedback trading behavior of U.S. mutual fund managers. We provide an empirical version of Barberis and Shleifer’s style-switching model. We find style-based feedback trading for 77% of the funds, half of which is positive (negative) feedback trading. There is evidence for “twin style” switching, where capital is channeled between value and growth, and between large- and small-cap. Growth (value) funds apply more positive (negative) feedback trading. Funds that switch more aggressively are younger and have higher expense ratios. Finally, we find that positive (negative) feedback trading yields positive (negative) alpha.

The literature documents heterogeneity in the delay of stock price reaction to systematic shocks, implying that asset risk depends on investment horizon. We study the pricing of risk factors across investment horizons. Value (liquidity) risk is priced over intermediate (short) horizons. Conditioning horizon-factor exposures on firm characteristics indicates that characteristics, with the exception of momentum, are not priced beyond their contribution to systematic risk. Long-horizon institutional investors overweight assets with high intermediate-horizon exposures to value risk and high short-horizon exposures to liquidity risk. The results highlight the importance of investment horizon in determining risk premia.

Abstract This study shows that correlated trading by gambling-motivated investors generates excess return comovement among stocks with lottery features. Lottery-like stocks comove strongly with one another, and this return comovement is strongest among lottery stocks located in regions where investors exhibit stronger gambling propensity. Looking directly at investor trades, we find that investors with a greater propensity to gamble trade lottery-like stocks more actively and that those trades are more strongly correlated. Finally, we demonstrate that time variation in general gambling enthusiasm and income shocks from fluctuating economic conditions induce a systematic component in investors’ demand for lottery-like stocks.

This paper provides a structural approach to testing investment equations based on the log-likelihood function of a nonlinear investment rule. The analysis integrates the predictions of the q -theory for the commonly studied active region of investment and provides new inferences on how real and financing frictions affect the probability that a firm invests. The empirical findings are consistent with the macro-finance literature suggesting that q -theory models with nonconvex investment frictions better explain the data. I also find that both real and financing costs of investment are related to the capital intensity of the industry in which firms operate.

Tying initial public offering (IPO) allocations to after-listing purchases of other IPO shares as a form of price support has generated much theoretical interest and media attention. Price support is price manipulation and can reduce secondary investor return. In the past, obtaining data to investigate price support has proven to be difficult. I document that price support is harming secondary investor return using new data from the Oslo Stock Exchange. I also show that investors who engage in price support are allocated more future oversubscribed allocations, whereas harmed secondary investors significantly reduce their future participation in the secondary market.

Abstract We provide evidence on the valuation of equity positions by hedge funds. Reported valuations deviate from standard valuations based on closing prices from the Center for Research in Security Prices for roughly 7% of the positions. These equity valuation deviations are positively related to illiquidity and price volatility of the underlying stocks. They respond to past performance and intensify after an advisor starts reporting to a commercial database. Furthermore, advisors with more valuation deviations show a stronger discontinuity in their reported returns around 0, manage a higher fraction of potentially fraudulent funds, report smoother returns, and exhibit an upward spike in their December reported returns.

We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that strategic considerations are important in shaping the cash policies of innovative firms. In our model, firms compete in product markets with uncertain structure using cash as a commitment device to invest in innovation. We show that firms’ equilibrium cash holdings are related to the expected intensity of competition. The sign and magnitude of this relation depends on firms’ financial constraints. Consistent with the strategic motive for hoarding cash, we show that firms’ cash holdings are negatively affected by their rivals’ cash-holding choices, even more so when competition is expected to be intense.

We empirically study the strategic behavior of levered firms in competitive and noncompetitive environments. We find that regulation induces firms to increase leverage, and this reduces their ability to compete when deregulation occurs. Large and small levered firms adopt different strategies upon deregulation. Whereas more levered small firms charge higher prices to increase margins at the expense of market shares, highly levered large firms prey on their rivals by increasing output and reducing prices to increase their market shares. The difference in their behavior is due to differences in their probability of bankruptcy and their financing constraints.

Debt overhang and moral hazard predict that poorly capitalized banks have a lower likelihood to issue equity, while the presence of regulatory and market pressures posits an opposite theoretical prediction. By using an international sample of bank seasoned equity offerings (SEOs), we show that the likelihood of issuing SEOs is higher in poorly capitalized banks and that such banks prefer SEOs to alternative capitalization strategies. A series of tests exploring the variation of capital regulation and market discipline show that market mechanisms rather than capital regulation are the primary driver of the decision to issue by poorly capitalized banks.

Abstract We provide new empirical evidence that U.S. expected growth and consumption volatility are closely related to the strong comovement in sovereign spreads. We rationalize these findings in an equilibrium model with recursive utility for credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The framework links a reduced-form default process with country-specific sensitivity to expected growth and macroeconomic uncertainty. Exploiting the high-frequency information in the CDS term structure across 38 countries, we estimate the model and find parameters consistent with preference for early resolution of uncertainty. Our results confirm the existence of time-varying risk premia in sovereign spreads as compensation for exposure to common U.S. macroeconomic risk.