Knowledge that Transforms

Econometric models have often been used to explain and predict demand, production and price patterns of agricultural commodities. With computers generally available, estimation and application of these models is a simple matter. In spite of this, there has been nothing written, at least nothing that we are aware of, which details the use of such models as an aid to speculation in commodities futures. This brief note reports successful use of an econometric model and a time-sharing computer system for this purpose.

This paper presents the results of a simulation study of the dynamic characteristics of the model built by Professor Chow whose purpose was to study statistically the relevance of the multiplier, accelerator, and liquidity preference as determinants of the national income of the United States.

A firm which produces a single product, whose production cost is a linear function of the production level and where net price per unit is constant, has a Pre-Tax Earnings function which is a linear function of the production level (see Figure I).

In a recent article, Donald R. Hodgman set forth a framework for analyzing commercial bank lending behavior which emphasized the relationship of customers to their banks as both depositors and borrowers. Specifically, Hodgman links the borrower's contract rate of interest to the profitability of his deposit account, i.e., banks compete for profitable deposit customers by offering the customer a rate which is lower than the comparable open market rate (adjusted for risk). Hodgman uses the terms deposit relationship and customer relationship to describe this behavior. He argues that compensating balance requirements, the prime rate convention, and provision of services below cost may be viewed as a systematic, rational attempt by commercial banks to maximize long-run profit under existing institutional arrangements when viewed from the perspective of the customer relationship.

Robert C. Meier, The Application of Optimum-Seeking Techniques to Simulation Studies: A Preliminary Evaluation, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 1 (Mar., 1967), pp. 31-51

Alfred E. Hofflander, Jr., Richard M. Duvall, The Ruin Problem in Multiple Line Insurance: A Simplified Model, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 2, No. 2 (Jun., 1967), pp. 150-165

In this paper the results of some new structural estimates of liquidity preference may be found. The justification for presenting them is that they differ from earlier estimates in certain ways. In some cases, the implications of these estimates differ sharply from the implications drawn by other observers on the basis of their estimates.

The concept that corporate investment-growth decisions are constrained by a profit opportunities schedule is central to much of the literature on finance and the theory of the firm. These writings suggest that, for a single firm: (1) the profit opportunities schedule is a decreasing function of investment growth (the slope reflecting, inter alia, competitive conditions); (2) the schedule shifts to the right with changes in national income (except for a firm producing income-inferior goods), and (3) the schedule's position (intercept) at a moment in time reflects a host of factors that are summarized by the term “management.”

There is little question that stock options have value, but there is considerable question as to how stock options should be valued. Persons studying the valuation question and writing in business periodicals have tied the value of the stock option to the expected or the actual appreciation in the value of the stock.