Knowledge that Transforms

Stephen J. Taylor, Brian G. Kingsman, Comment: "An Autoregressive Forecast of the World Sugar Future Option Market", The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 5 (Dec., 1977), pp. 883-890

The work of Black and Scholes [2] and Merton [4] suggests that analysis of hedged positions in a continuous time random walk model yields powerful insights into the valuation of financial securities. The present paper extends this methodology in a straightforward fashion to foreign exchange transactions. By adopting the device of hedging in a secondary market for forward currency contracts against a long position in spot currency, a simple statement of boundary conditions for the forward position can be detailed. This allows a direct solution of the continuous time valuation problem that yields the interest rate parity theory.

In recent years intensive work has been done applying the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin Capital Asset Pricing Model to the multiperiod investment decision under uncertainty. The purpose of this paper is to develop a practical working procedure for use by the financial manager. We first develop the multiperiod capital budgeting decision criterion in a form that lends itself to application. Second, we propose a method of implementation, one that we have made operational in computer programs currently on the Columbia University computer system. This makes it possible to extend the evaluation to encompass typical capital budgeting problems which, until now, have been discussed only under certainty. In particular we deal with the case of capital rationing. We employ programming techniques for this analysis and interpret the meanings of the dual variables.

The theory on the relationship between real and nominal interest rates is based on the well-known Fisher equation:where: i = nominal interest rate;r = real interest rate;λ = percentage change in price level: P /P0 - 1 where P and P0 denote end-of-period and current levels of some aggregate price index, respectively.

The relationship between an investor's attitude toward risk and the shape of his preference functions has long been recognized in both the general portfolio problem and the mean-variance model. By contrast, the literature has largely ignored the connection between general measures of an investor's attitude toward risk and the shape of his mean-variance or mean-standard deviation indifference curves. Yet this relationship is significant. Through general measures of risk aversion, assumptions about an investor's behavior under uncertainty imply restrictions on indifference curves. Conversely, assumptions about indifference curves impose restrictions on an investor's behavior under uncertainty. The development of this relationship and its implications is the objective of this note.

Richard Kolodny, Peter Seeley, Murray E. Polakoff, The Effect of Compensating Balance Requirements on the Profitability of Borrowers and Lenders, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 5 (Dec., 1977), pp. 801-815

Ian H. Giddy, A Note on the Macroeconomic Assumptions of International Financial Management, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 4, Proceedings of the 1977 Western Finance Association Meeting (Nov., 1977), pp. 601-605

For decision makers, we emphasize that it is feasible to consider multiple subjective criteria in a capital budgeting problem. The applicability of the procedures outlined is enhanced by the limited data base necessary to obtain subjective rankings, remembering that here we are only concerned with side criteria.In this paper, we have formulated the capital investment problem in a graph theoretic framework. We characterized the problem as being composed of a set of finite alternatives, a set of subjective criteria, and a set of resource constraints. This formulation leads to an integer programming problem in which the rankings of sets of alternatives on the multiple subjective criteria are aggregated into a single index. It is stressed that we used a single budgetary constraint in the example but that the procedure can accommodate additional constraints. We also assumed that management has specific side criteria and that it is possible for the decision makers to rank all alternatives for each of those criteria.The application of the above procedure to any problem involves three steps:1) From the decision maker, or groups of decision makers, the agreement matrix π is developed. This involves:a) defining the alternatives, b) defining the side criteria, c) asking management to rank each alternative under each criterion, andd) if appropriate, asking management to weigh the relative importance of each of the side criteria.2) From the technical considerations of the problem, determine the resource constraints. In our example, this included the investment requirements of each alternative and the total resources available.3) Solve the problem as posed above as a group of m integer programming problems.

An important maintained hypothesis in financial economics states that the average interest rate on a firm's debt is positively related to its leverage. This hypothesis has a long history going back at least to the work of Kalecki [4] where it was used to derive a determinate size for the competitive firm when the production function is homogeneous of degree one. The upward sloping interest rate-leverage relationship has also played an important role in the theory of finance. In this connection, it is somewhat interesting to find both Modigliani-Miller [5] and their many critics in complete agreement on the nature of this relationship. In particular, their statement on this subject conveys the impression that this relationship is governed by an unalterable law when they write: “Economic theory and market experience both suggest that the yields demanded by lenders tend to increase with the debt-equity ratio of the borrowing firm” [5, p. 273].

This paper analyzed the issue of why large commodity futures traders hold a large percentage of their portfolios in straddle positions where, for the most part, such behavior implies that they are holding assets with negative expected returns. It showed that an earlier paper by Schrock [2], which suggested that such behavior provided a means by which investors could enhance their risk-return tradeoffs, provided only a partial explanation for this behavior which, in a world of positive interest rates, held only under fairly restrictive conditions. Thus, it went on to develop a more general result which strongly suggests that differentially low margin requirements on straddle positions provide a strong incentive in a world of positive interest rates for investors to hold commodity straddle positions. With some modification the model developed in this paper can be used to derive similar conclusions for certain classes of transactions in the stock options market.