Knowledge that Transforms

Pricing models for American call and put options on futures contracts are derived herein. These models are used to investigate the efficiency of the market for options on Standard & Poor 500 and German Mark futures. The evidence presented here indicates that market prices for these options deviate substantially from their corresponding model prices. In addition, it is shown that a hedging strategy originated at prices that indicate a deviation of market from model is successful in translating the observed mispricing into excess profits after transactions costs. However, these net profits are eliminated if the origination of the strategy is delayed by one trade, or if bid-ask spreads are accounted for.

This article explores the price behavior of a sample of corporate securities in which trading was temporarily suspended by the SEC. Suspensions are found to coincide with substantial devaluations of the suspended securities. Further, significant and prolonged negative abnormal returns are observed in the postsuspension period, an apparent violation of semistrong form market efficiency.

Kenneth P. Nunn, Jr., Joanne Hill, Thomas Schneeweis, Corporate Bond Price Data Sources and Return/Risk Measurement, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 21, No. 2 (Jun., 1986), pp. 197-208

The adoption of the incentive-signalling framework gives a reasonably good explanation of the corporate dividend decision. The equilibrium optimal dividend decision under such a framework is presented and analyzed, assuming a reward-penalty managerial incentive scheme is used. It is shown that the size of the declared dividend is an increasing function of expected cash flow. However, there exists a trend that points out that the higher the level of expected cash flow, the lower the marginal effects of cash flow on dividends. A similar relationship is observed with respect to changes in expected cash flows. These conclusions are in harmony with “real world” behavior as reported by several empirical studies. The effects of uncertainty and interest rates on dividends are also analyzed. It is shown, in agreement with observed phenomena, that the higher the uncertainty, the lower the dividend/payout ratio.

Three alternative characterizations of corporate debt management policy, which have had wide currency in the literature, are examined. They are shown to give rise to substantial differences in their predictions of total-firm value. This study concludes that, of the three, the one that assumes that management periodically rebalances the firm's debt levels in response to evolving new information on expected future operating cash flows is the most logically consistent. On that basis, a reinterpretation of the available empirical evidence on the “tax effect” of debt is indicated.

James A. Brickley, Interpreting Common Stock Returns around Proxy Statement Disclosures and Annual Shareholder Meetings, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Sep., 1986), pp. 343-349

This paper investigates the efficiency of the market for foreign currency options with the help of a modified version of the Black-Scholes model. The evidence in the ex post tests is inconsistent with this hypothesis since we find a large number of opportunities for abnormal profits. A second set of tests is conducted on an ex ante basis to determine whether these profit opportunities exist even if the execution of the strategy is delayed by one day. The evidence from these tests provides more support for the hypothesis of market efficiency.

Edward C. Blomeyer, An Analytic Approximation for the American Put Price for Options on Stocks with Dividends, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 21, No. 2 (Jun., 1986), pp. 229-233

When a firm's management needs to raise external capital in order to finance an investment project, it is likely to have better information about the project's future return than do potential investors. In such a case, as has been shown in the literature, management may be able to signal its information through the use of certain financial variables. However, the possibility that management may be able to use the level of investment in the project itself to signal their information has not been considered. The purpose of this paper is to examine this possibility. It is shown here that the level of capital investment may be able to perfectly reveal management's information, with a higher input level signalling more favorable information. It is further demonstrated that even in this equilibrium, financial variables still play an important role. Among other results, it is shown, in contrast to a conclusion of a study by Leland and Pyle, that in this setting the number of shares held by management may be negatively correlated with the favorableness of their information.

Paul H. Malatesta, Measuring Abnormal Performance: The Event Parameter Approach Using Joint Generalized Least Squares, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Mar., 1986), pp. 27-38