The question of stock market efficiency has received considerable play in the financial press in recent years and understandably so. Not only is this a topic of interest to national policymakers charged with monitoring and promoting market efficiency, but answers to this question have rather important implications for the management of market participants' portfolios. Our interest in this subject focuses on a subsegment of the larger question of market efficiency, in particular on so-called technical theories of stock market behavior.

We survey theoretical and empirical research on antitakeover provisions, focusing on the relation between antitakeover provisions and shareholder value. We divide the empirical studies based upon the evidence that they provide: short-term event studies, studies on performance and policy changes around adopting antitakeover provisions or passing state antitakeover laws, studies on the impact of antitakeover provisions on takeovers, studies on the relation between antitakeover provisions and firm characteristics, and long-term studies on the relation between antitakeover provisions and firm performance or policies. We also discuss the place of antitakeover provisions in the current debate about “good governance” practices.

The estimation of dynamic no-arbitrage term structure models with a flexible specification of the market price of risk is beset by severe small-sample problems arising from the highly persistent nature of interest rates. We propose using survey forecasts of a short-term interest rate as an additional input to the estimation to overcome the problem. To illustrate the methodology, we estimate the 3-factor affine-Gaussian model with U.S. Treasury yields data and demonstrate that incorporating information from survey forecasts mitigates the small-sample problem. The model thus estimated for the 1990–2003 sample generates a stable and sensible estimate of the expected path of the short rate, reproduces the well-known stylized patterns in the expectations hypothesis tests, and captures some of the short-run variations in the survey forecast of the changes in longer-term interest rates.

Paul H. Malatesta, Rex Thompson, Government Regulation and Structural Change in the Corporate Acquisitions Market: The Impact of the Williams Act, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 3 (Sep., 1993), pp. 363-379

This paper derives the optimal hedge of an uncertain (unknown quantity) future foreign currency cash flow. This more general optimal hedge includes the traditional hedge for a certain (known quantity) future foreign currency cash flow as a special case. The optimal hedge is found to be unbounded and determined by firm-specific conditions, including the variance of the expected cash flow, and the correlation of that future cash flow with actual exchange rate movements. Simulated optimal hedge values are found for U.S.-based multinational firms possessing S/Dm cash flows, using exchange rate data for the 1981–1987 period. Special cases in which the optimal hedge ratio equals zero and one also are identified, and we show that cash flow uncertainty can strongly affect the effectiveness of hedging.

Geske derived in [1] expressions for the values of junior and senior debt and equity. In this paper, some confusion about these expressions is cleared up, and an error is corrected. We use the same notation as in [1].

Conservative financial policies are often criticized as serving the interests of managers rather than the interests of stockholders. We test this argument by examining the operating performance and other characteristics of firms that for a five-year period held more than one-fourth of their assets in cash and cash equivalents. Following the five-year period, operating performance of high cash firms is comparable to or greater than the performance of firms matched by size and industry or by a measure of proclivity to hold substantial cash. In addition, proxies for managerial incentive problems, such as ownership and board characteristics, are not unusual and do not explain differences in operating performance among high cash firms. We find that high cash holdings are accompanied by greater investment, particularly R&D expenditures, and by greater growth in assets. For firms that persistently hold large cash reserves, we conclude that such policies support investment without hindering corporate performance.

We present a subclass of Langetieg's (1980).linear Gaussian models of the term structure. The bond price is derived in terms of a finite set of state variables with correlated innovations. The subclass contains a reformulation of the double-decay model of Beaglehole and Tenney (1991), enabling us to clarify interpretation of their parameters. We apply Kalman filtering to a state space formulation of the model, allowing measurement errors in the data. One-, two-, and three-factor models are estimated on U.S. data from 1987–1996 and the results indicate the subclass of models can fit the U.S. term structure.

This paper derives and numerically simulates maximum likelihood estimators for the drift in several important diffusion price models. The time series convergence properties of these estimators are compared to those of standard estimators including the geometric and arithmetic means. Merton (1980) demonstrated that it is difficult to efficiently estimate the drift in a log-normal diffusion model. We qualify and strengthen his result by noting that his estimator is the maximum likelihood estimator and by applying our simulation results. However, we also demonstrate that it is possible to efficiently estimate the drift in other useful diffusion price models. In particular, by asking just how much time is needed in order for the maximum likelihood estimators of the drift in different diffusion processes to converge, these results qualify and quantify Black's (1993) statement that “we need such a long period to estimate the average that we have little hope of seeing changes in expected return."

Moon H. Song, Ralph A. Walkling, The Impact of Managerial Ownership on Acquisition Attempts and Target Shareholder Wealth, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 28, No. 4 (Dec., 1993), pp. 439-457