Knowledge that Transforms

Individual decisions about investment may be regarded as choices among alternative probability distributions of net returns. It is assumed that these distributions are completely known and independent of initial wealth positions, and that individuals determine the preferred portfolio of investment in accordance with a given, consistent set of preferences.

This paper applies a single measure of investment performance to mutual fund portfolios for the 20-year period 1948–1967. It criticizes the efficacy of market indices, at least for the purpose of evaluating aggregate results of managed portfolios; it tests the predictive value of past results in forecasting future performance; and finally, it identifies two factors that are positively related to fund performance during the time period studied.

Markowitz's [2] portfolio selection model was originally concerned with financial investments, but the model's implications for capital budgeting are now well recognized. Markowitz's basic idea is that the optimal portfolio for an investor is not simply any collection of good securities, but a balanced whole, providing the investor with the best combination of “return” and “risk.” Return and risk are to be measured by the expected value and variance of the probability distribution of portfolio return. Although financial writers have generally accepted Markowitz's measure of return, they have not been completely satisfied with his suggested measure of risk [1]. In fact, Markowitz himself had reservations about choosing variance as a measure of risk.1 Besides variance, he considered five other alternative measures of risk:(1) The expected value of loss;(2) The probability of loss;(3) The expected absolute deviation;(4) The maximum expected loss; and(5) The semivariance.

A great deal of interest has been expressed by economists and policy-makers concerning the adequacy of the financing of small and, especially, new firms. This paper presents an empirical study of the adequacy of one particular source of funds—outside equity.