Knowledge that Transforms

This paper develops an exact theoretical test of the presence or absence of a filter effect for a portfolio of securities and a general number of different filter sizes. It is a natural development from Praetz [8], which obtained exact expressions for the mean and variance of rates of return of the investment strategies under filter tests assuming the underlying stochastic process is a random walk. These expressions showed that expected returns from filter strategies are, in fact, less than the return from a buy-andhold alternative with which filter returns are usually compared.

In a past issue of the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Norstrπm [7] has presented a very simple sufficient condition for detecting whether a given pattern of cash flows over time has a unique nonnegative internal rate of return. Nor strum's condition is now widely cited in the literature and included in stock computer routines for analyses using the internal rate of return. See, e.g., de Faro [5] and Newnan [6].

The operation and characteristics of the American securities markets have long been major preoccupations of financial research, especially during the last decade. Particular attention has been devoted to the question of whether there exist investment strategies, or investing entities, capable of producing consistently superior investment performance. The general consensus to date is that few, if any, such success stories are observable. Examinations of the value of professional investment research and counsel ([7] [8] [9] [24]), of the payoff from technical trading rules ([11] [13] [18] [20] [26] [34]), and of the investment results of institutional money management ([15] [29] [25] [28]) have, in almost every instance, provided little indication of performance better than that attainable from a simple passive strategy of buying and holding a randomly selected, well-diversified portfolio of securities, after appropriate adjustments for portfolio risk levels are taken into account. The intensive competition in, and rapid information-digesting properties of, the capital market environment have been cited as explanations ([2] [5] [12]).

Seymour Smidt, Continuous Versus Intermittent Trading on Auction Markets, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 14, No. 4, Proceedings of 14th Annual Conference of the Western Finance Association, June 21-23, 1979 (Nov., 1979), pp. 837-866

Roger P. Bey, Estimating the Optimal Stochastic Dominance Efficient Set with a Mean-Semivariance Algorithm, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 14, No. 5 (Dec., 1979), pp. 1059-1070

Trading in currencies in order to obtain the best possible exchange rate is known as arbitrage and can broadly be divided into three categories:1) Space Arbitrage––transactions to take advantage of discrepancies between rates quoted at the same time in different markets.2) Time Arbitrage––transactions to take advantage of discrepancies between forward margins for different maturities.3) Interest Arbitrage––transactions to take advantage of discrepancies between yield on short-term investments in different currencies. This form of arbitrage can be split into (a) Covered and (b) Uncovered (speculative) interest arbitrage. The former variety uses today's forward rate for forward conversion back into our holding currency; the latter allows the dealer to use the spot rate existing in the future.

Of the many conglomerate studies to date, some have dealt with the risk-return performance of conglomerates in the context of the capital asset pricing model [2, 7, 10, 14], others have considered the motives for the formation of conglomerates [4, 5, 6, 13], and still others have examined the operating characteristics of conglomerates [9, 12, 15]. Within the last group, Weston and Mansinghka [15, p. 928] argued that the primary motivation for conglomerate formation is defensive diversification, “…defined as diversification to avoid adverse effects on profitability from developments taking place in the firm's traditional product market areas.” Another motivation is provided by Levy and Sarnat [4] and Lewellen [5] who demonstrated that the only economic gain from a purely conglomerate merger may be the increased debt capacity resulting from the combination of entities having imperfectly correlated earnings streams.

The purpose of this study is to build and test a statistical model for the dynamic estimation of portfolio Betas. Of particular interest is the quality of Beta estimates obtainable from relatively small samples of daily return data. Also of particular interest is an assessment of the relationship between the quality of these estimates and the degree of portfolio diversification. For obvious reasons it is desirable for a mutual fund manager to have the best possible estimates of the ongoing (and possibly changing) Betas of competitive funds. These estimates together with estimates of the degree of diversification will allow a portfolio manager to develop investment strategies relative to the expected performance of his own portfolio and his competitors in the market cycle ahead. These estimates will also allow inferences to be made with respect to the current market outlook of each individual competitor. For example, a gradually increasing fund Beta would indicate a bullish outlook on the part of a particular competitor.

In a recent article [1], Beedles suggests that the valuation process for cash outflows (or negative benefits using his terminology) is, in some sense, different from the valuation process for cash inflows. This result, however, is not consistent with the assumption of perfect capital markets. Any cash outflow from one firm represents a cash inflow to some other firm(s) or investor(s). Consequently, any difference in the valuation processes for cash outflows and cash inflows will create profitable arbitrage possibilities.

The relationship between the rate of inflation and the interest rate has been a topic of research for quite some time. A breakthrough in the analysis occurred years ago with Irving Fisher's hypothesis that the nominal interest rate fully reflects the available information concerning the possible future values of the rate of inflation. Others have extended Fisher's original insight to explain further the interaction between the rate of interest and inflation. For example, Mundell [26] uses the Pigou real-balance effect to hypothesize that the real rate of interest is inversely related to the rate of inflation.