Knowledge that Transforms

Abstract This paper examines the impact of competition on the optimal organization and financing structures in innovation-intensive industries. We show that as an optimal response to competition, firms may choose external organization structures established in collaboration with specialized start-ups where they provide start-up financing from their own resources. As the intensity of the competition to innovate increases, firms move from internal to external organization of projects to increase the speed of product innovation and to obtain a competitive advantage with respect to rival firms in their industry. We also show that as the level of competition increases, firms provide a higher level of financing for externally organized projects in the form of corporate venture capital (CVC). Our results help explain the emergence of organization and financing arrangements such as CVC and strategic alliances, where large established firms organize their projects in collaboration with external specialized firms and provide financing for externally organized projects from their own internal resources.

Abstract Dynamic term structure models explain the yield curve variation well but perform poorly in pricing and hedging interest rate options. Most existing option pricing practices take the yield curve as given, thus having little to say about the fair valuation of the underlying interest rates. This paper proposes an m + n model structure that bridges the gap in the literature by successfully pricing both interest rates and interest rate options. The first m factors capture the yield curve variation, whereas the latter n factors capture the interest rate options movements that cannot be effectively identified from the yield curve. We propose a sequential estimation procedure that identifies the m yield curve factors from the LIBOR and swap rates in the first step and the n options factors from interest rate caps in the second step. The three yield curve factors explain over 99% of the variation in the yield curve but account for less than 50% of the implied volatility variation for the caps. Incorporating three additional options factors improves the explained variation in implied volatilities to over 99%.

Abstract Existing approaches to testing for the efficiency of a given portfolio make strong parametric assumptions about investor preferences and return distributions. Stochastic dominance-based procedures promise a useful nonparametric alternative. However, these procedures have been limited to considering binary choices. In this paper we take a new approach that considers all diversified portfolios and thereby introduce a new concept of first-order stochastic dominance (FSD) optimality of a given portfolio relative to all possible portfolios. Using our new test, we show that the U.S. stock market portfolio is significantly FSD nonoptimal relative to benchmark portfolios formed on market capitalization and book-to-market equity ratios. Without appealing to parametric assumptions about the return distribution, we conclude that no nonsatiable investor would hold the market portfolio in the face of the attractive premia of small caps and value stocks.

Abstract This paper establishes liquidity linkage between stock and Treasury bond markets. There is a lead-lag relationship between illiquidity of the two markets and bidirectional Granger causality. The effect of stock illiquidity on bond illiquidity is consistent with flight-to-quality or flight-to-liquidity episodes. Monetary policy impacts illiquidity. The evidence indicates that bond illiquidity acts as a channel through which monetary policy shocks are transferred into the stock market. These effects are observed across illiquidity of bonds of different maturities and are especially pronounced for illiquidity of short-term maturities. The paper provides evidence of illiquidity integration between stock and bond markets.

Abstract In this paper I examine the likelihood of CEO stock option repricing and its alternatives: namely, option grant, stock grant, and “do nothing.” Multinomial logit results suggest that firms reprice options to increase sensitivity of pay to stock price and to temper down sensitivity of pay to volatility. Moreover, repricing firms are younger and more concentrated in industries where human capital is important. Finally, I find no evidence that internal governance or executive conflicts of interest are relevant in explaining repricing. My results indicate that repricing is motivated by incentive alignment and retention, and not by agency cost considerations.

Abstract We investigate the joint dynamics of returns and trading volume of 556 foreign stocks cross-listed on U.S. markets. Heterogeneous-agent trading models rationalize how trading volume reflects the quality of traders’ information signals and how it helps to disentangle whether returns are associated with portfolio-rebalancing trades or information-motivated trades. Based on these models, we hypothesize that returns in the home (U.S.) market on high-volume days are more likely to continue to spill over into the U.S. (home) market for those cross-listed stocks subject to the risk of greater informed trading. Our empirical evidence provides support for these predictions, which confirms the link between information, trading volume, and international stock return comovements that has eluded previous empirical investigations.

Abstract Representative agent models are inconsistent with existing empirical evidence for steep demand curves for individual stocks. This paper resolves the puzzle by proposing that stock prices are instead set by two separate classes of investors. While the market portfolio is still priced by individual investors based on their collective risk aversion, those individual investors also delegate part of their wealth to active money managers, who use that capital to price stocks in the cross section. In equilibrium, the fee charged by active managers has to equal the before-fee alpha they earn. This endogenously determines the amount of active capital and the slopes of demand curves. A calibration of the model reveals that demand curves can be steep enough to match the magnitude of many empirical findings, including the price effects for stocks entering or leaving the S&P 500 index.

Abstract Consistent with institutions having an advantage over individuals, we find that newly public firms with the highest levels of institutional investment significantly outperform those with the lowest levels. While prior literature has attributed much of institutions’ higher returns around various corporate events to private information, we find that much of the difference simply reflects better interpretation of readily available public information. Individuals disproportionately invest in the types of firms that earn significantly lower abnormal returns over the long run. Individuals either disregard or misinterpret the relevance of readily available public information, and as a result, they bear the brunt of IPO underperformance.

Abstract Ang, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang (2006a) show that stocks with high idiosyncratic return volatility tend to have low future returns. This paper further documents that idiosyncratic volatility is inversely related to future earning shocks, and more importantly, that the return-predictive power of idiosyncratic volatility is induced by its information content about future earnings. We examine various explanations of the triangular relation among idiosyncratic volatility, future earning shocks, and future stock returns. Our results show that the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly is not a simple manifestation of previously documented market anomalies related to excessive extrapolation on firm growth, over-investment tendency, accounting accruals, or investor underreaction to earnings news. On the other hand, there is evidence that the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly is related to corporate selective disclosure, and the anomaly is stronger among stocks with a less sophisticated investor base.

Abstract In light of recent improvements in the transparency of the corporate bond market, we examine the relation between high frequency returns on individual stocks and bonds. In contrast to the authors of previous literature, we employ comprehensive transactions data for both classes of securities. We find that hourly stock returns lead bond returns for nonconvertible junk- and BBB-rated bonds, and that stock returns lead bond returns for convertible bonds in all rating classes. Most of the predictable nonconvertible bonds are issued by companies in financial distress, while the predictable convertible bonds are those with conversion options more deeply in-the-money. These results indicate that the corporate bond market is less informationally efficient than the stock market, notwithstanding the recent improvements in bond market transparency and associated reductions in corporate bond transaction costs.