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Betting Against the Crowd: Option Trading and Market Risk Premium

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2026 open access
We study how equity option trading affects the market risk premium. We find that a measure of aggregate call order imbalance (ACIB), defined as the cross-sectional average of the difference between open-buy and open-sell volume, negatively forecasts future stock market returns significantly from days to months. Moreover, ACIB represents an option-based investor sentiment measure that accounts for excess option buying or selling, and is highly correlated with the stock investor sentiment. Our findings shed new insights on the distinctions for call and put option trading, index and equity option trading, and cross-sectional and time-series predictions.

Anomalies as New Hedge Fund Factors

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(8), 3660-3693 open access
We identify a parsimonious set of factors from a large pool of candidates for explaining hedge fund returns, ranging from equity market, anomaly, and trend-following factors to macroeconomic factors. The resulting 9-factor model, including five anomaly factors, outperforms existing hedge fund models both in sample and out of sample, with a significant reduction in alphas while showing substantial cross sectional performance heterogeneity. Further analysis based on fund holdings confirms the model’s ability to capture returns from arbitrage trading. Overall, the anomaly factors help quantify hedge fund strategies and risk exposures and improve fund performance evaluation.

Discontinued Positive Feedback Trading and the Decline of Return Predictability

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(7), 3062-3100 open access
We show that demand effects generated by institutional frictions can influence systematic return predictability patterns in stocks and mutual funds. Identification relies on a reform to the Morningstar rating system, which we show caused a structural break in style-level positive feedback trading by mutual funds. As a result, momentum-related factors in stocks, as well as performance persistence and the “dumb money effect” in mutual funds, experienced a sharp decline. Consistent with the proposed channel, return predictability declined right after the reform, was limited to the U.S. market, and was concentrated in factors and mutual funds most exposed to the mechanism.

Bringing Innovation to Fruition: Insights From New Trademarks

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(2), 474-520 open access
We build a novel comprehensive data set of new product trademarks as an output measure of product development innovation. We show that risk-taking incentives in CEO compensation motivate this type of innovation and that this innovation improves firm performance. Using an exogenous shock to executive compensation, we find that reductions in stock option compensation cause reductions in new product development. We also find that firms undertaking new product development experience increases in future cash flow from operations and return on assets. These findings suggest the importance of product development innovation to firms and new trademarks as a novel innovation measure.

Does Industry Competition Influence Analyst Coverage Decisions and Career Outcomes?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2023 58(2), 711-745 open access
We analyze whether industry competition influences analyst coverage decisions and whether analysts benefit from covering product market competitors. We find that analysts are more likely to cover a firm when this firm competes with more firms already covered by the analyst. We also find that the intensity of competition among these competitors is additionally important to the coverage decision. Moreover, we find that analysts who cover product market competitors are more likely to obtain analyst star status. These results are consistent with the importance to analysts of industry competition and product market knowledge accumulated through covering product market competitors.

Consolidating Product Lines via Mergers and Acquisitions: Evidence From the USPTO Trademark Data

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2022 57(8), 2968-2992 open access
Using a new trademark-based product market competition measure and a novel trademark-merger data set over the period 1983–2016, we show that companies facing greater product market competition are more likely to be acquirers. We further show that postmerger, compared to their nonacquiring peers, acquirers consolidate their product offerings by discontinuing more existing product lines and developing fewer new product lines. Using a quasi-experiment based on bids withdrawn due to exogenous reasons helps us establish the causal effect of deal completion on product-market consolidation. We conclude that acquisitions create product market synergies by cutting overlapping product offerings to achieve cost efficiency.

Overconfident Institutions and Their Self-Attribution Bias: Evidence from Earnings Announcements

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(5), 1738-1770 open access
Institutional demand for a stock before its earnings announcement is negatively related to subsequent returns. The relation is not attributable to the price pressure of institutional demand and is stronger for stocks with higher information asymmetry and/or greater valuation difficulty. These findings support the notion that overconfident institutions misprice stocks. Following announcements, institutions’ behavior exhibits the outcome-dependent feature of self-attribution bias. Whether they become more overconfident and delay their mispricing correction depends on whether earnings news confirms their preannouncement trades. This behavioral bias also offers a new explanation for the well-known post-earnings-announcement drift.

More Cash, Less Innovation: The Effect of the American Jobs Creation Act on Patent Value

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(1), 1-28
Firms can become less innovative following a sudden cash “inflow.” Specifically, multinational firms that were eligible to repatriate (and indeed repatriated) cash to the United States under the American Jobs Creation Act (AJCA) generate less valuable patents than otherwise similar firms. They also explore more. This effect only exists among firms in less competitive industries, firms with lower institutional ownership (IO), and firms with overconfident chief executive officers (CEOs); this effect is mainly driven by the reduction in the value of U.S.-originated patents. Our evidence suggests that, without appropriate governance, a cash windfall may lead managers to engage in riskier innovation strategy, which can destroy value.

The Real Effect of Smoking Bans: Evidence from Corporate Innovation

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2020 55(2), 387-427
We identify a positive causal effect of healthy working environments on corporate innovation, using the staggered passage of U.S. state-level laws that ban smoking in workplaces. We find a significant increase in patents and patent citations for firms headquartered in states that have adopted such laws relative to firms headquartered in states without such laws. The increase is more pronounced for firms in states with stronger enforcement of such laws and in states with weaker preexisting tobacco controls. We present suggestive evidence that smoke-free laws affect innovation by improving inventor health and productivity and by attracting more productive inventors.

Individual Investors’ Dividend Taxes and Corporate Payout Policies

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2017 52(3), 963-990 open access
The 2012 Dividend Tax Reform in China ties individual investors’ dividend tax rates to the length of their shareholding period. We find that firms facing a reduction (increase) in their individual investors’ dividend tax rates are more (less) likely to increase dividend payout. Such an effect is concentrated in firms where incentives of controlling shareholders and minority shareholders are aligned. Furthermore, investors respond to this tax law change by reducing trading activities before the cum-dividend day and successfully lower their dividend tax penalty. Overall, our evidence enhances the notion that individual investors’ tax profiles shape firms’ payout policies.