Knowledge that Transforms

A common dilemma faced by investors and portfolio managers is the tradeoff preference between risk and return. The general consensus and convention in finance and economics is that, in the aggregate, investors do not seek risk for its own sake. If so, it is reasonable to assume that returns on individual common stocks vary according to their risk. However, it is not the purpose of this paper to examine the ex post risk and return experience of various financial assets. This and related work have been treated by Sharpe [22] and by others. While some of these are studies of individual common stocks, the majority involves the ex post risk-return relationships of portfolios managed by institutional or professional investors. Although the conclusions are not totally consistent concerning the shape of the risk-return function, there is agreement that a generally positive relationship exists between risk and expected return. To date, little empiricism has been directed specifically to the ex ante risk-return preferences of individual common-stock investors. This paper takes a step in this direction by analyzing the ex ante risk-return preferences and expectations of individual common-stock investors. The purpose is two-fold: (1) to provide positive (as opposed to normative) evidence on the nature of the relationship between acceptable risk levels and expected annual rates of return; and (2) to examine the nature of this relationship between risk and the components of total return, income from dividends and capital appreciation.

Stephen A. Buser, Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Either a Singular or Nonsingular Variance-Covariance Matrix, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 3 (Sep., 1977), pp. 347-361

This paper examines the stationarity of beta coefficients, especially in regard to recent, major stock market trends. In addition to the usual correlation tests for stationarity, this paper describes a more direct method for testing the stationarity of portfolio betas. The method involves the use of paired t-tests which show separately the degree of stationarity for each portfolio beta. In the process of testing for stationarity, the portfolio betas also are adjusted for measurement error using a formulation suggested by Blume [3].

In a recent paper Joy and Porter [4] used the concept of stochastic dominance to address the question of whether or not mutual funds outperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Since that time Meyer [5] has proven a theorem in the area of stochastic dominance which allows one to make further application of stochastic dominance to this question. The major purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the power and relevance of the recently developed stochastic dominance theorem in ordering investments for groups of investors. In doing so, some evidence is presented concerning mutual funds and the DJIA.

In an earlier paper [1] a model of securities markets was introduced which implies that the ratio of transaction volume to price change is greater for transactions on which price rises than for those on which price falls. Examination of individual transactions data for a sample of corporate bonds showed that price changes and transaction volumes for those securities appears to behave in a manner consistent with the theory. However, the paper raised the question of whether the same is true for stocks. The positive dependence on share price of broker commissions for stocks could easily eliminate, or even reverse the sign of, the predicted positive difference between the absolute values of slopes of buyers' and sellers' reservation demand functions; and it is this difference which leads the model to predict the inequality of the ratios of volume to price change on upticks and downticks. This note records the results of tests of the model with stock data, using volumes and price changes pertaining both to individual transactions and to trading days. The tests indicate that the ratios of volume to price change exhibit the predicted relationship, when one of the two possible measures of volume is employed.

Much effort has been recently devoted to investigating and expounding the properties of the measure called “duration.” Two properties claimed for duration are (1) that it is a good indicator of the average life of a payments stream and (2) that it measures the elasticity of the present value of such a stream with respect to the discount rate. Unfortunately the theoretical justifications of the second, more important, property have been based upon the analysis of either a change in a discount rate constant for all future time periods, or, more generally, a parallel shift in the term structure of interest rates.

Louis K. W. Ying, Wilbur G. Lewellen, Gary G. Schlarbaum, Ronald C. Lease, Stock Exchange Listings and Securities Returns, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 3 (Sep., 1977), pp. 415-432

The focus of this study is the role of default risk in capital market theory. The impact of default risk on the value of securities has been a major concern of investors and academics alike. Several authors have examined the relationship between bond ratings, the probability of default, and security value [5, 12]. In this context, the ability to avoid or reduce expected bankruptcy costs and thereby increase value has been suggested as a reason for mergers and consolidations [16, 18]. In other studies, models have been developed for predicting ratings [17, 20, 21, 28], for predicting bankruptcy using accounting and other financial variables [1, 6, 7], and for approximating default premiums in the credit markets [22]. Finally a question which has received considerable attention is the effect of bankruptcy on a company's cost of capital. When bankruptcy is possible and there exists a positive bankruptcy transaction cost, it has been argued that there is an optimal capital structure [24, 26].

Hui-shyong Chang, Cheng F. Lee, Using Pooled Time-Series and Cross-Section Data to Test the Firm and Time Effects in Financial Analyses, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 3 (Sep., 1977), pp. 457-471

Robert C. Klemkosky, Donald L. Tuttle, A Ranking of Doctoral Programs by Financial Research Contributions of Graduates, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 12, No. 3 (Sep., 1977), pp. 491-497