We study how U.S. manufacturing firms’ investment responds to tariff reductions in supplier industries. Our estimates, based on tariff reductions following multinational trade agreements, suggest that a hypothetical 10% reduction of all upstream tariffs would increase downstream investment by 4% to 6%. This estimate is not explained by decreasing uncertainty and stems from tariff reductions for homogeneous and low-R&D inputs, consistent with the investment response resulting from cost reductions rather than superior foreign technology embodied in imported inputs. Evidence from an instrumental variable estimation using the sudden increase in Chinese import penetration suggests that import competition also increases downstream investment.

We examine the structural stability of Gaussian shadow rate term structure models in a sample of Treasury yields that includes the “effective lower bound” (ELB) period from 2008 to 2015. After highlighting the challenges of testing for structural breaks in a latent-factor model, we proceed to document various pieces of empirical evidence for a structural break. As one of several practical implications, the expected policy rate paths during ELB years are notably shallower in our model that accommodates a structural break compared with a model that imposes structurally stability.

Momentum profits depend mainly on the short leg and therefore on barriers to short sales. Our research indicates that the decline in momentum profitability in the past 2 decades is driven partly by a contemporaneous growth in stock options trading. Stock options offer an alternative to short selling, augmenting the stock lending market, and thereby contributing to improved pricing efficiency. The resulting reduction in barriers to short sales contributes to lower returns to momentum trading from the short leg. Our results persist after matching stocks with and without options based on different firm-level characteristics.

We study the valuation of collateral by comparing spreads on loans by the same bank, to the same borrower, at the same origination date, but backed by different types of collateral. Pledging collateral reduces borrowing costs by 23 BPS on average. The effect varies across different types of collateral, with marketable securities being most valuable, and real estate and accounts receivables and inventory being more valuable than fixed assets and a blanket lien. Further, the rate reduction from pledging collateral is sensitive to the value of the underlying collateral, and collateral tends to be more valuable for smaller and private firms and for loans with longer maturity.

We study the drift and cyclical components in U.S. Treasury bonds. We find that bond yields are drifting because they reflect the drift in monetary policy rates. Empirically, modeling the monetary policy drift using demographics and productivity trends, plus long-term inflation expectations, leads to cyclical deviations of bond prices from their drift that predict bond returns in- and out-of-sample. These bond cycles can be interpreted as term premia or/and temporary deviations from rational expectations in a behavioral framework. Through the lens of our model, we detect a significant role of the latter in determining the cyclical properties of yields with short maturities.