Hassan Tehranian, Billy P. Helms, An Empirical Comparison of Stochastic Dominance among Lognormal Prospects, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 17, No. 2 (Jun., 1982), pp. 217-226

This paper provides an analysis of the predictability of stock returns using market-, industry-, and firm-level earnings. Contrary to Lamont (1998), we find that neither dividend payout ratio nor the level of aggregate earnings can forecast the excess market return. We show that these variables do not have robust predictive power across different stock portfolios and sample periods. In contrast to the aggregate-level findings, earnings yield has significant explanatory power for the time-series and cross-sectional variation in firmlevel stock returns and the 48 industry portfolio returns. The mean reversion of stock prices as well as the earnings' correlation with expected stock returns are responsible for the forecasting power of earnings yield. These results are robust after controlling for bookto-market, size, price momentum, and post-earnings announcement drift. At the aggregate level, the information content of firm-level earnings about future cash flows is diversified away and higher aggregate earnings do not forecast higher returns.

The unique characteristics of options enable investors to create nonnormal portfolio return distributions that cannot be replicated with other assets. This analysis explores the power of various investment selection criteria to identify efficient portfolios from investment strategies involving call options and treasury bills, stocks, and covered option writing. The preference structure for strategies incorporating options is compared to traditional stock-fixed income investments, and the importance of options to investor utility maximization is illustrated. This study reveals that rules of stochastic dominance that place few restrictions on investor preference functions and asset return distribution are appropriate criteria by which to rank portfolios containing options and other assets.

We find the financial condition of states impacts bank credit supply through their municipal bond holdings. In particular, we treat sudden political and statutory actions during the 2011 union bargaining rights debates in Wisconsin and Ohio as exogenous shocks to state solvency. We show bank valuations and municipal bond spreads adjust to the announcements, and, over longer horizons, a new lending channel linked to state solvency emerges, whereby banks supply credit as municipal bond appreciations free up capital.