We develop a multivariate credit risk model that accounts for joint defaults of banks and allows us to disentangle how much of banks’ credit risk is systemic. We find that the United States and United Kingdom differ not only in the evolution of systemic risk but, in particular, in their banks’ systemic exposures. In both countries, however, systemic credit risk varies substantially, represents about half of total bank credit risk on average, and induces high risk premia. The results suggest that sovereign and bank systemic risk are particularly interlinked in the United Kingdom.

Using model-free skewness measures that exploit the asymmetry in semivariances and option data from the over-the-counter currency market, we find that buying currencies with a high skewness risk premium (SRP) and selling currencies with a low SRP generates high returns and a Sharpe ratio. Asset pricing tests—which control for omitted variables and measurement errors—show that a SRP factor enters the currency pricing kernel and is central to the pricing of risks inherent in a broad currency cross section of 60 portfolio excess returns. These results imply that skewness risk is a strong and priced source of currency risk.