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The Lender’s Lender: Trade Credit and the Monitoring Role of Banks

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(6), 2649-2677 open access
A firm’s role as lender to its customers (via trade credit) is influenced by the firm’s own lenders. With a novel data set of trade credit between U.S. public companies, I find that firms limit customer credit concentrations, extending less generous trade credit to customers as the firms’ sales dependence on them increases. Evidence points to lenders influencing firms to limit credit concentrations: First, cross-sectional variation shows stronger results with greater lender monitoring intensity. Second, analysis of granular loan contract details reveals that concentration limits in borrowing base formulas are a clear, previously unexplored way banks influence trade credit policies.

Overlapping Ownership Along the Supply Chain

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(1), 105-134 open access
I find overlapping institutional ownership (OIO) in a customer and supplier increases the duration of their supply chain relationship. Results are stronger when vertical holdup is more severe. A quasi-natural experiment around mergers of financial institutions provides causal evidence of OIO improving relationship survival rates. Concurrent with longer-lived relationships, valuations and innovation increase, consistent with OIO effects on relationship longevity being beneficial. I find evidence of OIO strengthening relationships via an internalization channel: With more OIO, partners cooperate more, with the supplier extending more trade credit. Overall, results indicate OIO strengthens vertical relationships by alleviating holdup problems.

The New Keynesian Model and Bond Yields

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(7), 3551-3590 open access
This article presents a New Keynesian model to capture the linkages between macro fundamentals and the nominal yield curve. The model explains bond yields with a low level of news in expected inflation and plausible term premia. This implies that the slope of the yield curve predicts future bond yields and that risk-adjusted historical bond yields satisfy the expectations hypothesis. The model also explains the spanning puzzle, matches key moments for real bond yields, captures the evolution of the price-dividend ratio, and implies that the slope of the yield curve and the price-dividend ratio forecast excess equity returns.

Mispricing and Risk Premia in Currency Markets

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(2), 695-733 open access
Using real-time data, we show that currency excess return predictability is in part due to mispricing. First, the risk-adjusted profitability of systematic trading strategies decreases after dissemination of the underlying academic research, suggesting that market participants learn about mispricing from publications. Moreover, the decline is greater for strategies with larger in-sample profits and lower arbitrage costs. Second, the effect of comprehensive risk adjustments on trading profits is limited, and signal ranks and alphas decay quickly. The finding that analysts’ forecasts are inconsistent with currency predictors implies that investors’ trading contributes to mispricing and suggests biased expectations as a possible explanation.

Book-to-Market, Mispricing, and the Cross Section of Corporate Bond Returns

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(3), 1185-1233 open access
Corporate bonds’ book-to-market ratios predict returns computed from transaction prices. Senior bonds (even investment grade) with the 20% highest ratios outperform the 20% lowest by 3%–4% annually after non-parametrically controlling for numerous liquidity, default, microstructure, and priced-risk attributes: yield-to-maturity, bid–ask spread, duration/maturity, credit spread/rating, past returns, coupon, size, age, industry, and structural model equity hedges. Spreads for all-bond samples are larger. An efficient bond market would not exhibit the observed decay in the ratio’s predictive efficacy with implementation delays, small yield-to-maturity spreads, or similar-sized spreads across bonds with differing risks. A methodological innovation avoids liquidity filters and censorship that bias returns.

The Effect of Takeover Protection in Quiet Life and Bonding Firms

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(1), 295-335
Antitakeover measures are controversial because the evidence of their net effect on shareholders is mixed. We propose that, for many firms, the potential bonding benefits outweigh the agency costs of the quiet life, explaining the mixed results. We study business combination and poison pill laws as exogenous shocks to takeover vulnerability and use shareholder valuation of internal slack as an indicator of the net effect of takeover protection. Firms susceptible to quiet life agency problems exhibit a decrease in the market-assessed value of internal slack. Conversely, cash appreciates at companies where takeover protection bonds commitments with major counterparties.

Lawyer CEOs

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(2), 580-616 open access
We study when CEOs with legal expertise are valuable for firms. In general, lawyer CEOs are negatively associated with frequency and severity in employment civil rights, contract, labor, personal injury, and securities litigation. This effect is partly induced by the CEO’s management of litigation risk and reduction in other risky policies. Lawyer CEOs are further associated with an increase in gatekeepers providing additional legal oversight and a decrease in innovative activities with high litigation risk. Lawyer CEOs are more valuable during periods of enhanced compliance requirements and regulatory pressure and in industries with high litigation risk or better growth opportunities.

Poison Pills in the Shadow of the Law

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(6), 2718-2752 open access
Poison pills are among the most powerful antitakeover provisions, but studying their economic impact is challenging because of the obvious endogeneity concerns. We address the problem by studying U.S. states’ staggered adoption of poison pill laws (PPLs), which strengthen the right to adopt a pill (i.e., the shadow pill ) and increase the validity of visible pills. We document that PPLs make visible pill policy aligned with economic incentives, increasing pill adoption among firms with a high likelihood of takeover, but decreasing it among firms with low takeover likelihood. We also document that PPLs positively impact firm value, especially for innovative firms with more intangible assets.

Retail Trading and Return Predictability in China

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(1), 68-104
Using comprehensive account-level data, we separate Chinese retail investors into 5 groups and document strong heterogeneity in trading dynamics and performances. Retail investors with smaller account sizes cannot predict future returns correctly, display daily momentum patterns, fail to process public news, and show overconfidence and gambling preferences, while retail investors with larger account balances predict future returns correctly, display contrarian patterns, and incorporate public news in trading. Using performance measures established in previous literature, we find that smaller retail investors suffer from poor stock selection abilities and trading costs, while large retail investors’ stock selection abilities are offset by trading costs.

COVID-19 Vaccinations, Business Activity, and Firm Value

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(4), 1965-1993
Using establishment-level data, we show that COVID-19 vaccinations boost business activity and firm performance in the United States. A 10-percent increase in vaccination rates results in a 4-percent to 6-percent increase in customer visits. We document the channels through which vaccinations increase store visits and the limits to the effect of vaccines on business activity. At the firm level, vaccinations increase sales and earnings, impact expansion decisions, and decrease probability of default, but the benefits vary across businesses. Vaccinations create private economic benefits to firms, shareholders, and employees, in addition to their intended public health benefits.