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Does Finance Make Us Less Social?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2023 58(3), 1230-1262 open access
Informal risk sharing within social networks and formal financial contracts both enable households to manage risk. We find that financial contracting reduces participation in social networks. Specifically, increased crop insurance usage decreased local religious adherence and congregation membership in agricultural communities. Our identification utilizes the Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act of 1994 that doubled crop insurance usage nationally within a year, although changes in usage varied across counties. Difference-in-difference and Spatial First Difference tests confirm that households substituted insurance for religiosity. This substitution was associated with reductions in crop diversification and crop yields, indicating an increase in moral hazard.

Fiscal Policy, Consumption Risk, and Stock Returns: Evidence from U.S. States

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2018 53(1), 109-136
We find that consumption risk is lower in states that implement countercyclical fiscal policies. Moreover, firms with an investor base that is concentrated in countercyclical states have lower stock returns, along with firms that relocate their headquarters to a countercyclical state. Therefore, countercyclical fiscal policies lower the consumption risk of investors and, consequently, their required equity return premium. This conclusion is confirmed by smaller declines in market participation during recessions in countercyclical states. Overall, the location of a firm’s investor base enables state-level fiscal policy to influence stock returns.

The Information in Industry-Neutral Self-Financed Trades

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2024 59(2), 796-829 open access
We identify Industry-Neutral Self-Financed Informed Trading (INSFIT) as stock trades financed by offsetting, equivalent dollar-denominated stock trades in the same industry. Approximately 37% of short-term mutual fund trading profits can be attributed to these trade pairs. Consistent with informed trading, INSFIT precedes unusually high media coverage for the underlying stocks. The trades underlying INSFIT are also larger as the release of stock-level news becomes more imminent. Both relative valuation and the hedging of industry exposure motivate INSFIT’s industry neutrality. While INSFIT positively impacts fund performance, active fund managers who execute INSFIT more aggressively obtain smaller trading profits per execution.

Do Large Gains Make Willing Sellers?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2022 57(4), 1486-1528 open access
Using unique real estate data that allow for accurately measured capital gains, we examine whether sell propensities depend on the magnitude of a seller’s capital gain. We find that short-term sell propensities are flat over losses and increasing in gains. Consistent with their higher sell propensities, selling prices are lower for properties with larger gains. Large-sized short-term stock investments also have sell propensities that are flat over losses and increasing in gains, although the sell propensities of typical-sized short-term stock investments are V-shaped. Our findings provide empirical support for theories of realization utility.

Institutional Liquidity Costs, Internalized Retail Trade Imbalances, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(8), 3826-3865 open access
Order flow segmentation prevents direct interactions between U.S. retail and institutional investors. Using the imbalance in observable internalized retail trades, we show wholesalers use retail flow to provide liquidity to institutional investors, especially when liquidity is scarce. Our institutional liquidity cost ( $ ILC $ ) measures average absolute retail trade imbalances, positing that institutions holding stocks with greater such averages more often resort to the expensive wholesaler-provided liquidity. $ ILC $ is correlated with expected institutional price impacts. Unlike existing illiquidity measures, $ ILC $ has economically meaningful relations with institutional holding horizons and yields annualized liquidity premia of 2.7%–3.2% post-2010, even after excluding microcap stocks.