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Consumption Growth Persistence and the Stock–Bond Correlation

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(2), 810-838 open access
We consider a model in which the correlation between shocks to consumption and to expected future consumption growth is nonzero and varies over time. We validate this assumption empirically using the model’s implication that time variation in consumption growth persistence (CGP) drives the correlation between stock and bond returns. Our model implies that the stock–bond correlation is also related to the predictive relation between bond yields and future stock returns. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that asset price fluctuations are the primary driver of changes in CGP.

Retail Trading and Return Predictability in China

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(1), 68-104
Using comprehensive account-level data, we separate Chinese retail investors into 5 groups and document strong heterogeneity in trading dynamics and performances. Retail investors with smaller account sizes cannot predict future returns correctly, display daily momentum patterns, fail to process public news, and show overconfidence and gambling preferences, while retail investors with larger account balances predict future returns correctly, display contrarian patterns, and incorporate public news in trading. Using performance measures established in previous literature, we find that smaller retail investors suffer from poor stock selection abilities and trading costs, while large retail investors’ stock selection abilities are offset by trading costs.

Better Tax Enforcement Moderates Airbnb’s Pressure on Housing Costs

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2025 60(7), 3591-3621 open access
The growing popularity of home-sharing platforms such as Airbnb, partly fueled by hosts’ ability to evade local taxes and regulations, has been shown to elevate housing costs by reallocating long-term housing units to the short-term rental market. This study assesses whether enhanced tax enforcement can mitigate this trend. We analyze staggered tax collection agreements between Airbnb and Florida counties, wherein Airbnb collects taxes from the hosts directly. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, we find these agreements significantly slow the growth of housing costs, highlighting the importance of tax policy in addressing the sharing economy’s influence on housing affordability.