Knowledge that Transforms

Three to 5 years after job displacements, workers receiving the advance notice mandated by current law earn approximately 10% more than their nonnotified counterparts. This differential is not the result of firms systematically notifying persons with favorable reemployment prospects-early warnings are disproportionately obtained by individuals expected to earn relatively low wages in subsequent employment. It is not clear, however, whether prenotification has a causal effect. The notification differential may occur because the advance notice is frequently provided by employers offering other kinds of adjustment assistance such as job counseling, skill retraining, supplemental unemployment benefits, or outplacement assistance.

World War II veterans earn more than nonveterans in their cohort. We test whether the World War II veteran premium reflects nonrandom selection into the military of men with higher earnings potential. The estimation is based on the fact that from 1942 to 1947 priority for conscription was determined by date of birth. Information on individuals' dates of birth may therefore be used to construct instrumental variables for veteran status. Empirical results from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses, along with two other microdata sets, support a conclusion that World War II veterans earn no more than comparable nonveterans and may well earn less.

We use the Current Population Survey to describe what we believe are the most salient aspects of labor force behavior of older men and women during the last 2 decades. First, we show that early retirement has increased dramatically, and this trend continued through the 1980s. Second, we show that the factors that most sharply distinguish propensities toward early retirement are those usually associated with low wages. Third, we show that trends in reduced participation for older men parallel those for younger men, while a pattern of increasing female participation is to be expected given the behavior of younger cohorts.