Knowledge that Transforms

We examine how up-or-out rules operate as a screening device in the market for lawyers. Using data on large New York law firms, we show that firm growth is a slow and uncertain process because performance as an associate is not an especially informative signal about whether a lawyer will make a good partner and because the costs of mistaken promotion are relatively high. A newly hired associate is unlikely to be a suitable partner and the screening process is relatively imprecise. Firm growth therefore contributes between 5%-7% of the present value of profits of a law firm.

This article presents the results of an experimental study investigating the problem of allocating heterogeneous indivisible objects using market-like mechanisms. The object of study is the market for professional baseball players in their free-agent year. We investigate both the current free-agency system and a variant of the current system instituted informally by the teams and ruled illegal by arbitrators. We then propose and test a new alternative matching mechanism, which proves to have quite a few desirable characteristics.

The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) represents an attempt to use labor market regulation to control illegal migration into the United States by imposing fines on employers who hire unauthorized workers. Sanctions lower wages directly because they act as a tax on hiring additional workers. In addition, IRCA legalized many longtime illegal aliens. Legalization affects wages by changing the relative supply of authorized and unauthorized workers. This study estimates IRCA's impact on wages of manufacturing production workers in metropolitan areas and finds small but statistically significant effects: sanctions lower wages, while legalization raises them.

This article uses data from the 1986 Canadian Family Expenditures Survey to estimate a life-cycle-consistent model of household labor supply and commodity demand that incorporates a mortgage qualification constraint based on earnings. Both the parametric and nonparametric implications of the model suggest that the labor supply of a nontrivial percentage of married women is constrained by mortgage commitments. The results of generalized selectivity models of female labor force participation and labor supply show that the positive effect of a high debt service ratio exceeds the negative effect of young children.

Using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data on tenure and wages, this article analyzes the extent to which the level of job mismatching varies over the business cycle and how it is dealt with by the labor market. I find significant cyclical variation in job match quality and an internalization of the variation by the labor market through wages. Mismatching occurs more during recessions but is primarily captured in starting wages. The evidence suggests the cyclical phenomenon is one of general mismatching rather than an increased number of stopgap jobs during recessions.

We develop an empirical model of adolescent premarital childbearing in which a woman's decisions affect a sequence of outcomes: premarital pregnancy, pregnancy resolution, and the occurrence of marriage before the birth. State welfare, abortion, and family planning policies alter the costs and benefits of these outcomes. For white adolescents welfare, abortion, and family planning policy variables have significant effects on these outcomes consistent with theoretical expectations. Black adolescents' behavior shows no association with the policy variables. The different racial results may reflect differences in sample size or important unmeasured racial differences in factors that influence fertility and marital behavior.

Strike outcomes in the 1880s had a "winner-take-all" character. Successful strikes ended with a discrete wage gain; failed strikes ended with a return to work at the prestrike wage. We present a theoretical interpretation of these outcomes based on a war-of-attrition model. We fit an empirical model specifying the capitulation times of the two parties and the size of the wage gain in the event of a strike success. The results show a systematic relation between the determinants of strike success and the determinants of the wage gain for a successful strike.

This article empirically examines married women's labor supply and child care expenditures. The article uses winter 1984-85 data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation to estimate a fully structural econometric model of labor supply and paid care utilization. Estimation results indicate that the cost of paid care has small negative effects on labor supply but stronger negative effects on paid care utilization. Consequently, subsidy programs such as the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit appear to have few effects on married mothers' employment.

A unique dataset collected from the personnel records of a large company is used to study the relationship between on-the-job training and worker productivity. The analysis shows how information contained in a company database is useful for eliminating heterogeneity bias in the estimation of training's impact on wages and job performance. Even when selection bias in assignment to training programs is eliminated, training is found to have a positive and significant effect on both wage growth and the change in job performance scores, thereby confirming the robustness of the relationship between training and productivity.

The authors estimate a wage model that includes an array of variables measuring the fraction of time worked during each year of the career. This array fully characterizes past employment experience, regardless of how sporadic it has been. Their model yields substantially higher estimated returns to experience and lower returns to tenure than do models that experience cumulatively and use the standard quadratic functional form. The authors find that the data reject the standard model but fail to reject their model. Furthermore, they find that 12 percent of the male-female wage gap is due to differences in the timing of work experience. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.