Knowledge that Transforms

The composition of immigrants depends not only on immigrant choice but also on immigration policy, because slots are rationed. Policy determines immigrant attainment, as evidenced by immigrants from Algeria having higher educational attainment than those from Israel or Japan. Theory predicts and evidence confirms that immigrant attainment is inversely related to the number admitted from a source country and positively related to population and education levels at home. A parsimonious specification has only two variables yet explains a majority of the variation in educational attainment of US immigrant groups. The theory and predictions are bolstered by Swedish data.

There is concern that the risky behaviors of teenagers, such as truancy, negatively influence the behaviors of others through their social networks. We use administrative data to construct social networks based on students who are truant together. We simulate these networks to document that certain students systematically coordinate their absences. We validate them by showing that a parent information intervention on student absences has spillover effects from treated students onto their peers. Excluding these effects understates the intervention’s cost-effectiveness by 43%. We show that there is potential to use networks to target interventions more efficiently given a budget constraint.

How does school quality affect health amid multiple behavioral responses? The Rosenwald schools transformed school quality for rural southern African Americans in the early 1900s. Research shows that the schools made black migration northward more likely and that the Great Migration shortened life expectancy for these migrants. Besides the hypothesized health-enhancing effects of school quality, negative health effects might also occur through migration. We disentangle behavioral mechanisms and find complete exposure to the Rosenwald schools increased life expectancy by 2–3 months; a more naive approach finds no relationship. Results are robust to heterogeneous treatment effects and various measurement issues.

In a 2014 paper, Garthwaite, Gross, and Notowidigdo examined the employment impact of the 2005 TennCare contraction. We extend their approach in several directions. First, we use consistent Conley-Taber estimation. Second, we transform their estimates to make them comparable to previous work; the transformed effects have large confidence intervals. We estimate their models using several larger data sets in an attempt to get more precise estimates but find that the results can be quite different. We consider two modifications to account for a major disruption to coverage in 2002, and one of these reduces the differences in the results.

Using data from a Canadian field experiment on financial barriers to higher education, we estimate the distribution of the value of financial aid for prospective students. We find that a considerable share of prospective students perceive significant credit constraints. Most individuals are willing to pay a sizable interest premium above the prevailing market rate for the option to take up a loan, with a median interest rate wedge equal to 6.8 percentage points for a $1,000 loan. The willingness to pay for financial aid is heterogeneous across students, with discount factors playing a key role in accounting for this variation.

We assess the biases induced by measurement error in a study of correlations in educational attainment across two and three generations in the United States using linked data spanning 1940–2015. Although multigenerational regressions show an economically meaningful “grandparent effect,” we find that this effect is overstated and likely not statistically or economically significant after we correct for measurement error. However, that same measurement error means that inferences derived using only two generations of data understate persistence in educational attainment by roughly 20%. We find an 18% decline in the intergenerational correlation of educational attainment over the twentieth century.

We investigate whether increased animosity toward Muslims after 9/11 had spillover effects on Black and Hispanic individuals in the federal criminal justice system. Using linked administrative data tracking defendants from arrest through sentencing, we find that after 9/11, sentence and presentence outcomes for Hispanic defendants significantly worsened. Outcomes for Black defendants were unchanged. The findings are consistent with judges and prosecutors displaying social preferences characterized by contagious animosity from Muslims to Hispanics. Our findings provide among the first field evidence of contagious animosity, indicating that social preferences across out-groups are interlinked and malleable.

One concern regarding US immigration policies is that skilled workers on temporary visas may be bound to their employers in “indentured servitude,” giving rise to monopsony power. I investigate this concern by estimating the effect of acquiring permanent residency on the job mobility and earnings of these workers. Using fixed effects models, I find an immediate upsurge in mobility upon permanent residency receipt, primarily driven by voluntary moving being depressed during the employer-sponsored immigration process. Job lock reduces the earnings of male workers by 4.7%, which translates to a 2% surplus for firms after extra hiring costs are subtracted.

The Federal Pell Grant Program lowers the cost of higher education for low-income students. We estimate Pell’s average effect for the universe of federally aided students—the broadest swath of higher education studied to date. Exploiting discontinuities and kinks in the grant schedule, we find that the effect of Pell on completion rates and postcollege earnings is much smaller than the findings of recent prominent studies focused on specific states. We argue that interactions between Pell grants and state aid programs may explain this difference, underscoring the importance of understanding how the impact of financial aid depends on context.

Choosing where to apply to college is a complex problem with long-term consequences, but many students lack the guidance necessary to make optimal choices. I show that a technology that provides low-cost personalized college admissions information to more than 40% of high schoolers significantly alters college choices. Students shift applications and attendance to colleges for which they can observe information on schoolmates’ admissions experiences. Responses are largest when such information suggests a high admissions probability. Disadvantaged students respond the most, and information on in-state colleges increases their 4-year college attendance. Data features and framing, however, deter students from selective colleges.