Using three sources of data, this article examines the direct economic return to General Educational Development (GED) certification for both native and immigrant high school dropouts. One data source—the Current Population Survey (CPS)—is plagued by nonresponse and allocation bias from the hot deck procedure that biases the estimated return to the GED upward. Correcting for allocation bias and ability bias, there is no direct economic return to GED certification. An apparent return to GED certification with age found in the raw CPS data is due to dropouts becoming more skilled over time. These results apply to both native‐born and immigrant populations.

The option to obtain a General Education Development (GED) certificate changes the incentives facing high school students. This paper evaluates the effect of three different GED policy innovations on high school graduation rates. A six point decrease in the GED pass rate due to an increase in passing standards produced a 1.3 point decline in overall dropout rates. The introduction of a GED certification program in high schools in Oregon produced a four percent decrease in graduation rates. Introduction of GED certificates in California increased dropout rates by 3 points. The GED program induces high school students to drop out.