This paper has two parts. The first part concentrates on modeling transitions out of unemployment using aggregated gross flow data. Models are estimated using monthly transition probabilities for March-April 1984. This analysis produces evidence consistent with negative duration dependence but sheds no light on the role of macroeconomic factors. The second part focuses on this issue. A time-series analysis of the proportion of long-term unemployment using data for four age and sex groups provides evidence that a proportionately greater increase in long-term unemployment in Australia in the 1970s has been associated with reduction in job availability and the effect of certain supply shocks.