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Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models

Journal of Political Economy 1982 90(4), 663-698
The study reports on the applicability of competing models of market information integration and dissemination in explaining the behavior of simple laboratory, one-period security markets. Returns to the security depended upon a randomly chosen state of nature. Some agents (insiders), whose identity was unknown to other agents, knew the state before the markets opened. With replication of market conditions a model based upon rational expectations principles is relatively accurate. Prices adjusted immediately to near rational expectations prices; profits of insiders were virtually indistinguishable from noninsiders; and efficiency levels converged to near 100 percent.

Misconceptions and Game Form Recognition: Challenges to Theories of Revealed Preference and Framing

Journal of Political Economy 2014 122(6), 1235-1270
This study explores the tension between the standard economic theory of preference and nonstandard theories of preference that are motivated by an underlying theory of framing. A simple experiment fails to measure a known preference. The divergence of the measured preference from the known preference reflects a mistake, arising from some subjects’ misconception of the game form. We conclude that choice data should not be granted an unqualified interpretation of preference revelation. Mistakes in choices obscured by a possible error at the foundation of the theory of framing can masquerade as having been produced by nonstandard preferences.

The Principles of Exchange Rate Determination in an International Finance Experiment

Journal of Political Economy 1997 105(4), 822-861
This paper reports the first experiments designed to explore the behavior of economies with prominent features of international finance. Two “countries,” each with its own currency, were created. International trade could take place only through the operation of markets for currency. The law of one price and the flow of funds theory of exchange rate determination were used to produce general equilibrium models that captured much of the behavior of the economies. Prices of goods, as well as the exchange rate, evolve over time toward the predictions of the models. However, both the law of one price and purchasing power parity can be rejected for reasons that do not appear in the literature. Patterns of international trade were as predicted by the law of comparative advantage.

A Pari-Mutuel-Like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: A Field Test inside Intel

Journal of Political Economy 2017 125(4), 1075-1099
A new information aggregation mechanism (IAM), developed via laboratory experimental methods, is implemented inside Intel Corporation in a long-running field test. The IAM, incorporating features of pari-mutuel betting, is uniquely designed to collect and quantize as probability distributions dispersed, subjectively held information. IAM participants’ incentives support timely information revelation and the emergence of consensus beliefs over future outcomes. Empirical tests demonstrate the robustness of experimental results and the IAM’s practical usefulness in addressing real-world problems. The IAM’s predictive distributions forecasting sales are very accurate, especially for short horizons and direct sales channels, often proving more accurate than Intel’s internal forecast.