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The Choice of Techniques and the Optimality of Market Equilibrium with Rational Expectations

Journal of Political Economy 1982 90(2), 223-246
This paper shows that, in the absence of a complete set of risk markets, prices provide incorrect signals for guiding production decisions. Even if all individuals have rational expectations concerning the distribution of prices which will prevail on the market next period, the market allocation is, in general, not a constrained Pareto optimum. Essentially the only conditions under which, for all technologies, the market equilibrium is a constrained Pareto optimum are those in which risk markets are redundant. We derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for redundancy of risk markets, which turn out to be extremely restrictive.

Notes on Estate Taxes, Redistribution, and the Concept of Balanced Growth Path Incidence

Journal of Political Economy 1978 86(2, Part 2), S137-S150
This paper shows that, because of capital accumulation effects, the estate tax may increase inequality of income and wealth. If the government takes actions to offset these accumulation effects, the tax will lead to an increase in equality of income and wealth. More generally, the paper argues that to evaluate the incidence of a tax in a growth context, one should compare policy changes which leave the aggregate capital labor ratio unchanged; we call this balanced growth incidence. But even with the capital labor ratio remaining unchanged, the estate tax may increase inequality in the distribution of consumption.

Bail-Ins and Bailouts: Incentives, Connectivity, and Systemic Stability

Journal of Political Economy 2022 130(7), 1805-1859
This paper endogenizes intervention in financial crises as the strategic negotiation between a regulator and creditors of distressed banks. Incentives for banks to contribute to a voluntary bail-in arise from their exposure to financial contagion. In equilibrium, a bail-in is possible only if the regulator’s threat to not bail out insolvent banks is credible. Contrary to models without intervention or with government bailouts only, sparse networks enhance welfare for two main reasons: they improve the credibility of the regulator’s no-bailout threat for large shocks, and they reduce free-riding incentives among bail-in contributors when the threat is credible.