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Sequential Auctions with Synergy and Affiliation across Auctions

Journal of Political Economy 2021 129(1), 148-181
This paper performs a structural analysis of sequential auctions with both synergy and affiliation across auctions. I propose a flexible yet tractable sequential auction model under the private value paradigm and establish its nonparametric identification, demonstrating an intuitive and general method for disentangling synergy from affiliation. After developing an estimation procedure closely tied to the identification steps, I apply it to data on adjacent oil and gas leases that are auctioned sequentially. I assess the role played by affiliation versus synergy in the observed allocation patterns and evaluate the counterfactual policy of bundled auctions.

Risk and Information in Dispute Resolution: An Empirical Study of Arbitration

Journal of Political Economy 2025 133(9), 2794-2835
We develop and estimate a structural model of arbitration, accounting for asymmetric risk attitudes and learning. Using data on public sector wage disputes in New Jersey, we compare the efficiency of two popular arbitration formats: final offer and conventional. We find that although conventional arbitration hinders the transmission of case-relevant information from the disputants to the arbitrator, this format outperforms final offer arbitration by affording discretion to select awards. We also assess how risk attitude differences between the disputants affect imbalances in arbitration outcomes, finding that risk aversion weakens a party?s position in the dispute despite making them more likely to win arbitration.