Knowledge that Transforms

Next article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Ran AbramitzkyDaron AcemogluRodrigo AdaoNaoki AizawaAlberto AlesinaMichelle AlexopoulosDouglas AlmondSimon AndersonAshish AroraEnghin AtalayAndrew AtkesonDavid Austen-SmithEduardo AzevedoMartha BaileySarah BairdNathaniel Baum-SnowPatrick BayerDaniel BenjaminSaurabh BhargavaSourav BhattacharyaDan BlackArthur BlouinAaron Bodoh-CreedAlessandro BonattiLeah BoustanNina BoyarchenkoEric BudishMarshall BurkeLorenzo CasaburiPierre-Andre ChiapporiDavin ChorGiancarlo CorsettiBruno CreponJanet CurrieFrancesco DecarolisMelissa DellJan De LoeckerDavid DemingJonathan DingelTaryn DinkelmanJeremiah DittmarWill DobbieDave DonaldsonUlrich DoraszelskiBenjamin EdelmanTim EisertMatt ElliottWedad ElmaghrabyYing FanErica FieldFrederico FinanAmy FinkelsteinRaymond FismanTeresa FortThomas FujiwaraPatrick GagliardiniAlberto GalassoJonah GelbachBenjamin GillenDavid GreenRaymond GuiterasNaijia GuoYingni GuoAdam GurenFatih GuvenenMarina HalacYoram HalevyRobert HallJessie HandburyRick HarbaughNikolaj HarmonGlenn HarrisonPaul HeidhuesNathaniel HendrenRichard HoldenThomas HolmesCornelia HolthausenRichard HornbeckJean-Francois HoudePatrick HummelGregor JaroschNavin KartikKei KawaiWilliam KerrOnur KestenJonathan KetchamKyungmin KimPatrick KlineRalph KoijenGeorgia KosmopoulouChris KuzawaNicola LaceteraMathias LePatrick LegrosJacob LeshnoIlse LindenlaubElliot LipnowskiGeorge LoewensteinAlexander MackayNeale MahoneyDavid Marques-IbanezAlexandre MasBhashkar MazumderMaurizio MazzoccoIgnacia MercadalStelios MichalopoulosDouglas MillerRobert MoffittEduardo MoralesStephen MorrisIsmael MourifieKathleen MullenBarry NalebuffPaulo NatenzonJ. NearyYusuf NeggersMatthew NeidellPhilip OreopoulosHarry PaarschDaniel ParavisiniParag PathakAndrew PattonGert PeersmanDiego PerezRicardo Perez-TrugliaNicola PersicoEric PlugMaria PolyakovaDevin PopeDaniel QuintNatalia RamondoGautam RaoMar ReguantDavid ReileySteven RivkinJames RobinsonAnne-Katrin RoeslerEsteban Rossi-HansbergAldo RustichiniSally SadoffRaffaella SadunMaher SaidBernard SalaniePhilipp Schmidt-DenglerBradley SetzlerJ. George ShanthikumarAllison ShertzerKelly ShueRalph SiebertSebastian SoteloGonca SoysalGiancarlo SpagnoloJörg SpenkuchFrancesco SquintaniKonrad StahlBryce SteinbergMelvin StephensAdam StoreygardJoerg StoyeBruno StruloviciRichard SweeneyCaroline ThomasMelissa ThomassonFrancesco TrebbiFrederic VermeulenJonathan VogelNico VoigtlaenderJoel WaldfogelChristopher WaltersMarianne WanamakerEbonya WashingtonBirger WernerfeltAlexander WhiteFrank WindmeijerRonald WolthoffJulian WrightDaniel Yi XuDanny YaganNoam YuchtmanJunsen ZhangEkaterina ZhuravskayaJonathan Zinman Next article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 126, Number 1February 2018 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/697266 © 2018 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Rolf AabergeJason AbaluckEliot AbramsDouglas AlmondIsaiah AndrewsCharles AngelucciPeter ArcidiaconoGaurab AryalKentaro AsaiDavid AutorRuediger BachmannAlexander BartikMarco BattagliniSamuel BazziDaniel BenjaminMartin BerajaDavid BergerJohn BeshearsPrashant BharadwajAlberto BisinSimon BoardCatherine BobtcheffAlessandro BonattiStephane BonhommeLoren BrandtR. BraunJeremy BulowSteven CallanderDavid CesariniEric ChaneySteve CicalaAntonio CicconeJeffrey ClemensJohn CochraneAllan Collard-WexlerMarco CosconatiErnesto Dal BoRebecca DiamondTaryn DinkelmanSimeon DjankovCarlos DobkinDavid DranoveOeindrila DubePascaline DupasRuben DuranteAlex EblePhilipp EisenhauerFabian EserItay FainmesserTimothy FeddersenShuaizhang FengAmy FinkelsteinRaymond FismanChristopher FooteMarco FrancesconiChao FuWilliam FuchsXavier GabaixManolis GalenianosAndrea GaleottiSebastian GalianiAlfred GalichonJorge Garcia-MenendezPieter GautierEdward GlaeserBenjamin GolubYuriy GorodnichenkoDaniel GottliebFrancois GourioMarina HalacWilliam HanlonGlenn HarrisonBard HarstadTarek HassanBenjamin HebertAndrew HoRichard HornbeckThomas HubbardJohn Eric HumphriesBrian JacobSeema JayachandranPhilippe JehielAmir JinaMichael JohannesDamon JonesLeo KaasLouis KaplowLoukas KarabarbounisAnil KashyapRyan KelloggLutz KilianHenrik KlevenPatrick KlineBrian KnightFuhito KojimaWojciech KopczukAmanda KowalskiMichael KrauseDiana KrugerEliana La FerraraDavid LagakosKevin LangMartin LettauRoss LevineArthur LewbelGregory LewisQi LiShengwu LiElliot LipnowskiAlessandro LizzeriXiang MaBrigitte MadrianDaniel MartinYusufcan MasatliogluFilip MatejkaMichael MazzeoDavid McKenzieRobert McMillanXin MengIgnacia MercadalOmer MoavMelanie MortenPetra MoserAndreas MoxnesRoger MyersonRamana NandaEric NielsenMatthew NotowidigdoNathan NunnPietro OrtolevaGerard Padro i MiquelThomas PalfreyStavros PanageasElias PapaioannouLoriana PelizzonKrishna PendakurGiovanni PeriNicola PersicoPetra PerssonWolfgang PesendorferMaria PetrovaIvan PngDevin PopeAndrea PratVincenzo QuadriniRodney RamcharanJoao RamosHillel RapoportAlex Rees-JonesJean-Marc RobinJames RobinsonChristian RoesslerJesse RothsteinNicholas RyanStephen RyanBruce SacerdoteYuval SalantNorbert SchadyWolfram SchlenkerLukas SchmidAntoinette SchoarDaniel SchunkKarl SchurterJoshua SchwartzsteinBradley SetzlerBradley ShapiroJoseph ShapiroMatthew ShumBernardo SilveiraCharles SprengerSascha SteffenJakub SteinerJon SteinssonJohannes StroebelChristopher TaberSatoru TakahashiEvan TaylorAlexander TeytelboymPhilipp TillmannPetra ToddFrancesco TrebbiUgo TroianoMarta Troya MartinezViktor TsyrennikovUtku UnverWinnie van DijkJohn Van ReenenVenky VenkateswaranMiguel Villas-BoasAnnette Vissing-JorgensenAlessandra VoenaJoel WaldfogelReed WalkerAndrea WeberRebecca Weitz-ShapiroBirger WernerfeltMatthew WiswallAlexander WolitzkyNoam YuchtmanGabriel ZucmanEric Zwick Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 126, Number 2April 2018 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/698129 © 2018 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Brant AbbottRan AbramitzkyRodrigo AdaoNikhil AgarwalTreb AllenDouglas AlmondIsaiah AndrewsPeter ArcidiaconoEnghin AtalayAdrien AuclertNed AugenblickEduardo AzevedoLinda BabcockMarco BattagliniVivek BhattacharyaSourav BhattacharyaAlberto BisinDan BlackHenning BohnLaurent BoutonBen BrooksMarshall BurkeLeonardo BursztynSteven CallanderNicolas Castro CienfuegosDavid CesariniPierre-Andre ChiapporiEugene ChooGregory ClarkJohn CochraneDean CorbaeThomas CovertJacques CraemerErnesto Dal BoBrendan DaleyLucas DavisDamien De WalqueMark DeanManasi DeshpandeDouglas DiamondRebecca DiamondMichael DinersteinJonathan DingelJeremiah DittmarWill DobbieDave DonaldsonUlrich DoraszelskiPierre DuboisGeorgy EgorovAlon EizenbergBenjamin EnkeDennis EppleChristine ExleyPablo FajgelbaumArmin FalkRobert FeenstraAmy FinkelsteinRaymond FismanMarco FrancesconiBrigham FrandsenEric FrenchChao FuDrew FudenbergThomas FujiwaraManolis GalenianosCecile GaubertAndrew Goodman-BaconDavid GreenMatthew GrennanAdam GurenRong HaiJessie HandburyEric HanushekBard HarstadTarek HassanNathaniel HendrenRichard HoldenElisabeth HonkaMatteo IacovielloMurat IyigunKelsey JackSaumitra JhaCharles JonesDamon JonesJohn KennanPhilipp KircherNobuhiro KiyotakiPatrick KlineNarayana KocherlakotaRachel KrantonIlan KremerVijay KrishnaZoe KuehnEliana La FerraraNicola LaceteraDavid LagakosRicardo LagosRasmus LandersoeVictor LavyRobin LeeTracy LewisHaizhen LinMatthew LindquistBarton LipmanCorinne LowFernando LucoLilia MaliarDavid MalisonGustavo MansoErin MansurGiovanni MastrobuoniBhashkar MazumderMaurizio MazzoccoDavid McKenzieBruce MeyerVirgiliu MidriganEdward MiguelAhmed MobarakJoao MontezMelanie MortenCharles MurryCaitlin MyersDerek NealDavid NeumarkVolker NockeMasao OgakiPaulina OlivaPaul OyerBerk OzlerYoungmin ParkMario PascoaEduardo Perez-RichetRicardo Perez-TrugliaWolfgang PesendorferJose-Luis PeydroMassimiliano PisaniTomasz PiskorskiDevin PopeDrazen PrelecDavid RahmanSharon RameySteven RaphaelMartin RavallionAlex Rees-JonesM. RehaviPhilip RenyJose Rios-RullJames RobertsAriel RubinsteinThomas RuchtiMarc RysmanLawrence SchmidtMehdi ShadmehrJacob ShapiroRon SiegelEric SimsHoward SmithPaulo SomainiDavid StrombergChris SwannYuya TakahashiDmitry TaubinskyFelix TintelnotPetra ToddAlexander TorgovitskyRobert TownsendJuuso ValimakiStijn Van NieuwerburghJoseph VavraGreg VeramendiLise VesterlundAnnette Vissing-JorgensenAlessandra VoenaNico VoigtlaenderJessica WachterChristopher WaltersRoberto WeberBirger WernerfeltAsher WolinskyAlexander WolitzkyPierre YaredNese YildizAli YurukogluBasit ZafarJidong ZhouOwen ZidarSarah ZubairyGabriel Zucman Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 126, Number 5October 2018 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/700865 © 2018 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Previous articleNext article FreeRecent RefereesPDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmailQR Code SectionsMoreJournal of Political Economy acknowledges the assistance of:Johannes AbelerManuel AdelinoNikhil AgarwalAnna AizerDavid AlbouyHunt AllcottNizar AllouchDouglas AlmondMarcella AlsanJoshua AngristGabriela AntoniePeter ArcidiaconoCostas ArkolakisDavid AtkinYu AwayaEduardo AzevedoSimcha BarkaiEmek BaskerChristiane BaumeisterSascha BeckerJuliane BegenauSamuel BentolilaArthur BlouinAaron Bodoh-CreedStephane BonhommeSamuel BowlesEric BudishFiona BurligMichael CallenDennis CarltonMarco CastilloBriana ChangJudith ChevalierEric ChynJeffrey ClemensAllan Collard-WexlerPedro Dal BoSanmay DasThomas DavidoffGeoffroy de ClippelDavid de la CroixDaniela Del BocaMelissa DellDavid DemingWouter DesseinSebastian Di TellaEleanor DillonJonathan DingelHyun Soo DohDave DonaldsonThorsten DrautzburgPierre DuboisGreg DuncanUmut DurGilles DurantonPiotr DworczakZvi EcksteinLena EdlundMartin EichenbaumPhilipp EisenhauerMehmet EkmekciErik EysterRobert FeenstraFrederico FinanJonas FisherRaymond FismanChristopher FlinnAnthony FowlerMarco FrancesconiAlexander FrankelDaniel FriedmanJohn FriedmanDrew FudenbergDon FullertonEtienne GagnonJorge GarcíaJodi GardnerCecile GaubertAlessandro GavazzaTed GayerAlexander GelberHeiko GerlachDavid GillUri GneezyClaudia GoldinGary GortonPiero GottardiGene GrossmanRong HaiRobert HallChristian HansenJoseph HarringtonGlenn HarrisonPaul HealyRichard HoldenRichard HornbeckCosmin IlutJun IshiiKelsey JackRobert JensenJanna JohnsonJustin JohnsonBoyan JovanovicLoukas KarabarbounisDean KarlanKyeongbae KimPeter KlenowHenrik KlevenRalph KoijenJonathan KolstadScott KominersRachel KrantonIlan KremerMichael KremerTim LandvoigtClare LeaverSangMok LeeJacob LeshnoSteven LevittJin LiShengwu LiBarton LipmanFrancesco LippiJeremy LiseQingmin LiuKatrine LokenShelly LundbergRamon MarimonLaurent MathevetGregor MatvosJames McAndrewsBernard McSherryMarc MelitzKonstantinos MetaxoglouRichhild MoessnerFerdinando MonteStephen MorrisJack MountjoyPaulo NatenzonCharles NathansonPaul NiehausEd NosalCormac O GradaPaulina OlivaBenjamin OlkenMallesh PaiStavros PanageasAndreas ParkRonni PavanJudea PearlZhuan PeiRicardo Perez-TrugliaRyan PetersLaura PilossophHerakles PolemarchakisDina PomeranzAndrea PratDiego PugaValerie RameyStephen ReddingFrederic Robert-NicoudDavid RobinsonJonathan RobinsonPablo Robles SantamarinaMark RosenzweigJohn RustBernard SalaniePaola SapienzaTim Schmidt-EisenlohrPeter SchottSam Schulhofer-WohlKatja SeimAmit SeruRon ShacharArtyom ShneyerovAndrzej SkrzypaczErik SnowbergSebastian SoteloJon SteinssonSteven SternTodd StinebricknerJan StuhlerChad SyversonAlireza Tahbaz-SalehiFelix TintelnotPetra ToddAlexander TorgovitskyFabrice TourreFrancesco TrebbiStijn Van NieuwerburghDimitri VayanosRobert VerrecchiaAshley VissingShing-Yi WangDavid WeinsteinScott WeisbennerEric WeylChen YehBasit ZafarYves Zenou Previous articleNext article DetailsFiguresReferencesCited by Journal of Political Economy Volume 126, Number 3June 2018 Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/698866 © 2018 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

We analyze how academic experts and nonexperts forecast the results of 15 piece-rate and behavioral treatments in a real-effort task. The average forecast of experts closely predicts the experimental results, with a strong wisdom-of-crowds effect: the average forecast outperforms 96 percent of individual forecasts. Citations, academic rank, field, and contextual experience do not correlate with accuracy. Experts as a group do better than nonexperts, but not if accuracy is defined as rank-ordering treatments. Measures of effort, confidence, and revealed ability are predictive of forecast accuracy to some extent and allow us to identify “superforecasters” among the nonexperts.

We develop an equilibrium life cycle model of education, marriage, labor supply, and consumption in a transferable utility context. Individuals start by choosing their investments in education anticipating returns in the marriage market and the labor market. They then match on the basis of the economic value of marriage and preferences. Equilibrium in the marriage market determines intrahousehold allocation of resources. Following marriage households (married or single) save, supply labor, and consume private and public commodities under uncertainty. Marriage thus has the dual role of providing public goods and offering risk sharing. The model is estimated using the British Household Panel Survey.

Teachers affect a variety of student outcomes through their influence on both cognitive and noncognitive skill. I proxy for students’ noncognitive skill using non–test score behaviors. These behaviors include absences, suspensions, course grades, and grade repetition in ninth grade. Teacher effects on test scores and those on behaviors are weakly correlated. Teacher effects on behaviors predict larger impacts on high school completion and other longer-run outcomes than their effects on test scores. Relative to using only test score measures, using effects on both test score and noncognitive measures more than doubles the variance of predictable teacher impacts on longer-run outcomes.

This paper quantitatively assesses time inconsistency, moral hazard, and political ideology in monopoly regulation of electricity distribution. We specify and estimate a dynamic model of utility regulation featuring investment and moral hazard. We find underinvestment in electricity distribution capital aiming to reduce power outages and use the estimated model to quantify the value of regulatory commitment in inducing greater investment. Furthermore, more conservative political environments grant higher regulated returns but have higher rates of electricity loss. Using the estimated model, we quantify how conservative regulators thus mitigate welfare losses due to time inconsistency but worsen losses from moral hazard.

The increasing availability of data derived from linked consumer financial accounts has the potential to dramatically expand the potential for research. Examining the most comprehensive existing set of linked-account data, consisting of transaction and balance sheet data for millions of Americans, I demonstrate the power and versatility of such sources. I discuss advantages and concerns arising from this type of data and match a range of distributional moments to external sources. As one application, I test consumption elasticities across households with varying levels, and types, of debt. I find that heterogeneity in consumption elasticity can be explained entirely by credit and liquidity.