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Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investments in Bullocks in India

Journal of Political Economy 1993 101(2), 223-244
This paper formulates and estimates a finite-horizon, structural dynamic model of agricultural investment behavior that incorporates the major features of low-income agricultural environments: income uncertainty, constraints on borrowing and rental markets, and the use of investment assets to generate income and smooth consumption. The model is fit to longitudinal Indian household data on farm profits, bullock stocks, and pump sets. The estimated structural parameters are used to assess th e effects on the life-cycle accumulation of bullocks, agricultural profits, and welfare associated with complete markets and bullock liquidity and with second-best policies that provide assured sources of income to farmers and weather insurance.

Life-Cycle Labor Supply and Fertility: Causal Inferences from Household Models

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(2), 328-348 open access
Although estimates of the fertility-labor supply relationship abound, a full appreciation of the interpretation of such estimates has been lacking, regardless of the empirical strategy employed. This paper attempts to elucidate, within the context of a life-cycle decision-making process, the information contained in the estimated association between fertility and labor supply as calculated from "single" and "simultaneous-equations" estimation techniques. We also present a statistical methodology based upon the occurrence of twins in the first pregnancy and provide estimates, using that methodology, of the extent to which women's life-cycle labor supply decisions respond to exogenous (and, in this case, unanticipated) extra children.

Aligning Learning Incentives of Students and Teachers: Results from a Social Experiment in Mexican High Schools

Journal of Political Economy 2015 123(2), 325-364
This paper evaluates the impact of three different performance incentive schemes using data from a social experiment that randomized 88 Mexican high schools with over 40,000 students into three treatment groups and a control group. Treatment 1 provides individual incentives for performance on curriculum-based mathematics tests to students only, treatment 2 to teachers only, and treatment 3 gives both individual and group incentives to students, teachers, and school administrators. Program impact estimates reveal the largest average effects for treatment 3, smaller impacts for treatment 1, and no impact for treatment 2.