Knowledge that Transforms

In the Anglo-American constitutional tradition, judicial checks and balances are often seen as crucial guarantees of freedom. Hayek distinguishes two ways in which the judiciary provides such checks and balances: judicial independence and constitutional review. We create a new database of constitutional rules in 71 countries that reflect these provisions. We find strong support for the proposition that both judicial independence and constitutional review are associated with greater freedom. Consistent with theory, judicial independence accounts for some of the positive effect of common-law legal origin on measures of economic freedom. The results point to significant benefits of the Anglo-American system of government for freedom. This paper is a radical revision of an earlier paper by the same authors, “The Guarantees

Despite declining group inequality and the rapid expansion of the black middle class in the United States, major urban centers with significant black populations continue to exhibit extreme racial separation. Using a theoretical framework in which individuals care about both the affluence and the racial composition of neighborhoods, we show that lower inequality is consistent with extreme and even rising levels of segregation in cities in which the minority population is large. Our results can help explain why segregation continues to characterize the urban landscape even though survey evidence suggests that individuals favor more integration than they did in the past.

We measure the cost of consumption fluctuations using an approach that does not require the specification of preferences and instead uses asset prices. We measure the marginal cost of consumption fluctuations, the per unit benefit of a marginal reduction in consumption fluctuations expressed as a percentage of lifetime consumption. We find that the gains from eliminating all consumption uncertainty are very large. However, for consumption fluctuations corresponding to business cycle frequencies, we estimate the marginal cost to be between 0.08 percent and 0.49 percent of lifetime consumption.

We exploit Japan’s sudden and complete opening up to international trade in the 1860s to test the empirical validity of one of the oldest and most fundamental propositions in economics: the theory of comparative advantage. Historical evidence supports the assertion that the characteristics of the Japanese economy at the time were compatible with the key assumptions of the neoclassical trade model. Using detailed product‐specific data on autarky prices and trade flows, we find that the autarky price value of Japan’s trade is negative for each year of the period 1868–75. This confirms the prediction of the theory.

The evolution of technology causes human capital to become obsolete. We study this phenomenon in an overlapping generations setting, assuming that technology evolves stochastically and that older workers find updating uneconomic. Experience and learning by doing may offer the old some income protection, but technology advance always turns them into has‐beens to some degree. We focus on the determinants (demand elasticities, persistence of technology change, etc.) of the severity of the has‐beens effect. It can be large, even leading to negatively sloped within‐occupation age‐earnings profiles and an occupation dominated by a few young, high‐income workers. Architecture displays the sort of features the theory identifies as magnifying the has‐beens effect, and both anecdotes and some data suggest that the has‐beens effect in architecture is extreme indeed.

Estimating the impact of economic conditions on the likelihood of civil conflict is difficult because of endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We use rainfall variation as an instrumental variable for economic growth in 41 African countries during 1981–99. Growth is strongly negatively related to civil conflict: a negative growth shock of five percentage points increases the likelihood of conflict by one‐half the following year. We attempt to rule out other channels through which rainfall may affect conflict. Surprisingly, the impact of growth shocks on conflict is not significantly different in richer, more democratic, or more ethnically diverse countries.

We examine the mapping of the distribution of ability onto earnings in a hierarchical job assignment model. Workers are assigned to a continuum of jobs in fixed proportions, ordered by sensitivity to ability. The model implies a novel marginal productivity interpretation of wages. We derive comparative statics for changes in technology and in the distribution of ability. We find conditions under which a more unequal distribution of ability maps onto a more/less unequal distribution of earnings. We also analyze an assignment model with variable proportions and find that in the Cobb‐Douglas case, a rise in the inequality of ability always narrows the range of earnings.

The question of whether higherlifetime income households save a larger fraction of their income was the subject of much debate in the 1950s and 1960s, and while not resolved, it remains central to the evaluation of tax and macroeconomic policies. We resolve this long-standing question using new empirical methods applied to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Survey of Consumer Finances, and the Consumer Expenditure Survey. We find a strong positive relationship between saving rates and lifetime income and a weaker but still positive relationship between the marginal propensity to save and lifetime income. There is little support for theories that seek to explain these positive correlations by relying solely on time preference rates, nonhomothetic preferences, or variations in Social Security benefits. There is more support for models emphasizing uncertainty with respect to income and health expenses, bequest motives, and asset-based means testing or behavioral factors causing minimal saving rates among low-income households.

There are two striking aspects of the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States: the recovery was very weak, and real wages in several sectors rose significantly above trend. These data contrast sharply with neoclassical theory, which predicts a strong recovery with low real wages. We evaluate the contribution to the persistence of the Depression of New Deal cartelization policies designed to limit competition and increase labor bargaining power. We develop a model of the bargaining process between labor and firms that occurred with these policies and embed that model within a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that New Deal cartelization policies are an important factor in accounting for the failure of the economy to recover back to trend.

I thank seminar participants at the NBER Summer Institute, the Brookings Institution, and the Center for Economic Studies for their comments. Mark Roberts made several helpful suggestions regarding an earlier draft. I am also grateful to John Haltiwanger, Rachel Kranton, Mike Pries, Plutarchos Sakellaris, and John Shea for their instruction and guidance. Funding