Knowledge that Transforms

We consider a dynamic monetary economy where agents gradually learn about the holding cost of a new asset and coordinate to adopt it as money or abandon it. We provide closed-form solutions for state-contingent asset prices and agents’ adoption decision. The transactional benefits of using money are endogenous and can convexify or concavify the payoff structure. Thus, the arrival of new information can raise or reduce the asset’s price, which is in sharp contrast to standard insights in experimentation models. Full disclosure of the asset type and an increase in the learning speed improve information but have different welfare implications.

What is the optimal fiscal policy response to a recession when the government is subject to sovereign risk? We study this question in a model of endogenous sovereign default with nominal rigidities. Increasing spending in a recession reduces unemployment, but it exposes the government to a debt crisis. We quantitatively analyze this trade-off between stimulus and austerity and find that expanding government spending may be undesirable, even in the presence of sizable Keynesian stabilization gains and inequality concerns. Consistent with these findings, we show that sovereign risk is a key driver of the fiscal procyclicality observed worldwide.

This paper studies the optimal determination of deposit insurance when bank runs are possible. We show that the welfare impact of changes in the level of deposit insurance coverage can be generally expressed in terms of a small number of sufficient statistics, which include the level of losses in specific scenarios and the probability of bank failure. We characterize the wedges that determine the optimal ex ante regulation, which map to asset- and liability-side regulation. We demonstrate how to employ our framework in an application to the most recent change in coverage in the United States, which took place in 2008.

I characterize the dynamics of incentives in an optimal contract with investment delegation, moral hazard, and uncertainty about the agent’s productivity. The principal increases the agent’s incentives after good performance in order to delegate more capital to an agent with higher perceived productivity, thus implementing a convex pay-for-performance scheme. Moreover, the principal commits to reduce the agent’s future incentives in order to mitigate ex ante investment distortions. Methodologically, I provide a duality-based strategy to overcome technical challenges common to continuous-time contracting models with state variables. I also derive a sufficient condition to verify the validity of the first-order approach.

We introduce a framework for studying collective search by teams. Discoveries are correlated over time and governed by a Brownian path, where search speed is jointly controlled. Agents individually choose when to cease search and implement their best discovery. We characterize equilibrium and optimal policies. Search speeds are constant within active alliances and depend on complementarities between members. A drawdown stopping boundary governs each agent’s search termination. The consequent exit waves, whereby possibly heterogeneous agents cease search simultaneously, exhibit deterministic sequencing but stochastic timing. We highlight environments with lower than optimal equilibrium speeds and search durations, and different exit waves.

This paper investigates the sources of wage growth over the life cycle, determined by sectoral and firm mobility, unobserved ability, the accumulation of cognitive-abstract or routine-manual skills, and whether workers enroll in vocational training at the start of their career. Our analysis uses longitudinal administrative data over three decades and shows that routine-manual skills drive early wage growth, while cognitive-abstract skills become more important later. Moreover, job amenities are an important determinant of mobility decisions. Vocational training has long-term effects on career outcomes through various channels and generates returns for both the individual and society.