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Relative Capital Formation in the United States

Journal of Political Economy 1980 88(3), 561-577
A version of the overlapping-generations model suggests that an increase in the rate of innovation alters capital formation in favor of schooling and other human capital at the expense of physical capital, and tends to reduce total savings, defined as human investments plus financial savings. The theoretical explanation suggests that relative capital formation in human beings, but not necessarily absolute capital formation, is positively associated with the degree of innovation. Analysis of U.S. time-series data supports the hypotheses advanced in the paper.

The Effects of Ideal Production Stabilization: A Welfare Analysis under Rational Behavior

Journal of Political Economy 1979 87(5), 1011-1033
This paper focuses on the welfare effects of output instability and its elimination. Assuming Muthian rationality, risk neutrality, and lagged production response, I show how output instability affects the long-run production incentive. The gains and losses from the elimination of output disturbances ("ideal stabilization") are evaluated, and simple general conditions are derived which determine whether producers or consumers can expect to gain or lose from such stabilization. The distribution of the gains is generally more evenhanded than indicated in previous expectational models of price stabilization, which can be interpreted as special cases of this model.

Taxation and "Abnormal" International Capital Flows

Journal of Political Economy 1977 85(3), 635-646
If the choice of domestic versus foreign money and capital market instruments was on the basis of covered yields, funds would universally flow in one direction, from the smallest incentive, to the instruments of highest yields. This paper shows the consequences of different rates of taxation on interest and on exchange gains, the two components of foreign yields. By reference to the U.S.-Canadian situation it is shown how we might observe taxpayers in both countries simultaneously buying securities of the other, or simultaneously buying their own domestic securities. It is also shown how we might find taxpayers of both countries buying the securities with the lower pretax yields.

The Theory of Share Tenancy Revisited--Again

Journal of Political Economy 1977 85(2), 403-407
[In fact, share-farmed lands yield as much as rented or owner-cultivated lands. In traditional theory, share-farmed lands yield less, for share tenants stint their efforts. This article shows that economists' standard assumptions about a market equilibrium reconcile theory with fact: when contracts are enforced, share farmers labor as diligently as others. Evidence is advanced that gain from the joining of tenant and landlord interests, not gain from the dispersion of agricultural risk, is the impetus to share tenancy.]

Taxation and "Abnormal" International Capital Flows

Journal of Political Economy 1977 85(3), 635-646
If the choice of domestic versus foreign money and capital market instruments was on the basis of covered yields, funds would universally flow in one direction, from the smallest incentive, to the instruments of highest yields. This paper shows the consequences of different rates of taxation on interest and on exchange gains, the two components of foreign yields. By reference to the U.S.-Canadian situation it is shown how we might observe taxpayers in both countries simultaneously buying securities of the other, or simultaneously buying their own domestic securities. It is also shown how we might find taxpayers of both countries buying the securities with the lower pretax yields.

The Theory of Share Tenancy Revisited--Again

Journal of Political Economy 1977 85(2), 403-407
In fact, share-farmed lands yield as much as rented or owner-cultivated lands. In traditional theory, share-farmed lands yield less, for share tenants stint their efforts. This article shows that economists' standard assumptions about a market equilibrium reconcile theory with fact: when contracts are enforced, share farmers labor as diligently as others. Evidence is advanced that gain from the joining of tenant and landlord interests, not gain from the dispersion of agricultural risk, is the impetus to share tenancy.

Minimum Rate Regulation, Modal Split Sensitivities, and the Railroad Problem

Journal of Political Economy 1977 85(3), 493-512
Contrary to popular opinion, the diversion of traffic from railroads to motor carriers has not been the result of minimum rate regulation. The idea that there is a large amount of misallocated traffic is based on the widespread but faulty method of analyzing intermodal competition by means of a simple cost comparison. The paper uses modal split analysis to show that the welfare gain accompanying minimum rate regulation will be modest. The welfare effects of transport controls other than minimum rate regulations are likely to be far more serious.

Money and Economic Activity in the Open Economy: The United Kingdom, 1880-1970

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(5), 979-1012
This paper presents a highly aggregated structural macroeconomic model of the U.K. economy. The specification is based on the insights provided by recent theoretical work on the working of open economies, and provides the most complete answer yet offered on the reverse causation controversy in monetary economics. The key empirical findings include relatively high interest rates and price elasticities in the relevant behavioral equations and a significant disequilibrium real balance effect on a broad expenditure aggregate. The results of simulation analysis of the model are reported and throw light on Britain's relatively poor postwar macroeconomic performance.

Money and Economic Activity in the Open Economy: The United Kingdom, 1880-1970

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(5), 979-1012
This paper presents a highly aggregated structural macroeconomic model of the U.K. economy. The specification is based on the insights provided by recent theoretical work on the working of open economies, and provides the most complete answer yet offered on the reverse causation controversy in monetary economics. The key empirical findings include relatively high interest rates and price elasticities in the relevant behavioral equations and a significant disequilibrium real balance effect on a broad expenditure aggregate. The results of simulation analysis of the model are reported and throw light on Britain's relatively poor postwar macroeconomic performance.