The paper develops a theory of exchange rate movements under perfect capital mobility, a slow adjustment of goods markets relative to asset markets, and consistent expectations. The perfect foresight path is derived and it is shown that along that along that path a monetary expansion causes the exchange rate to depreciate. An initial overshooting of exchange rates is shown to derive from differential adjustment speed of markets. The magnitude and persistence of the overshooting is developed in terms of the structural parameters of the model. To the extent that output responds to a monetary expansion in the short run, this acts a a dampening effect on exchange depreciation and may, in fact, lead to an increase in interest rates

Applying the monetary approach to the balance of payments, this paper examines the interdependent nature of monetary policies. In an n-country game where each monetary authority decides on its credit expansion to maximize its objective function, it is shown that the Cournot (or noncooperative) solution and the Stackelberg leadership solution do not lie on the contract curve, unless the aggregated preference over the balance of payments is exactly matched by the creation of international reserves. If the creation of international reserves exceeds the aggregated preference, the monetary expansion takes on the nature of public bads, leading to international inflation

The joint determination of work and investment in human capital over the life cycle is analyzed. At low rates of impatience investment is decreasing throughout life, as in simpler models which assume hours of work to be fixed. The demand for leisure over the life cycle is "U shaped." Wages rise to a single peak which occurs after the peak in hours of work. Distinctly different patterns arise when the rate of impatience is high. Such individuals may prefer an increasing hours of work profile, and schooling need not be concentrated at the beginning of life. Conditions are provided to determine a critical level of time preference which is sufficient to induce a "normal" life-cycle pattern for investment and work

This paper presents a highly aggregated structural macroeconomic model of the U.K. economy. The specification is based on the insights provided by recent theoretical work on the working of open economies, and provides the most complete answer yet offered on the reverse causation controversy in monetary economics. The key empirical findings include relatively high interest rates and price elasticities in the relevant behavioral equations and a significant disequilibrium real balance effect on a broad expenditure aggregate. The results of simulation analysis of the model are reported and throw light on Britain's relatively poor postwar macroeconomic performance

A mathematical model of applied research is formulated. It views applied research as a search in a given distribution; basic research shifts the distribution searched. The productivity of applied research effort is a function of the gap between technology in practice and basic knowledge. With constant basic and applied research a (stochastic) steady state emerges in which technological change is determined by the rate of progress of basic knowledge, and the technological gap by the level of applied research.

This paper investigates the effect of organized futures trading on information in spot markets. First, a model is developed that relates spot-price behavior and market information. The model can be viewed as a particular efficient markets model; this connection provides additional implications about price behavior and information. Next, price series for six different commodities are investigated for an information effect of futures trading. For each commodity, the empirical evidence indicates that futures trading increases traders' information about forces affecting supply and demand

The joint determination of work and investment in human capital over the life cycle is analyzed. At low rates of impatience investment is decreasing throughout life, as in simpler models which assume hours of work to be fixed. The demand for leisure over the life cycle is "U shaped." Wages rise to a single peak which occurs after the peak in hours of work. Distinctly different patterns arise when the rate of impatience is high. Such individuals may prefer an increasing hours of work profile, and schooling need not be concentrated at the beginning of life. Conditions are provided to determine a critical level of time preference which is sufficient to induce a "normal" life-cycle pattern for investment and work

This paper describes and elaborates a process first discovered by Edward H. Clarke that motivates individuals to reveal their true preferences for public goods. The essence of the process is that each individual is offered a chance to change the outcome that would occur without his vote by paying a special charge equal to the net cost to others that results from including his vote in the decision. Because the special charge on any one person is not paid to any other person, a very small budget surplus results. Applications to both discrete and continuous decisions are illustrated