The wide cross-country disparity in rates of economic growth is the most puzzling feature of the development process. This paper describes a class of models in which this heterogeneity in growth experiences can be the result of cross-country differences in government policy. These differences can also create incentives for labor migration from slow-growing to fast-growing countries. In the models considered, growth is endogenous, despite the absence of increasing returns, because there is a "core" of capital goods that can be produced without the direct or indirect contribution of factors that cannot be accumulated, such as land

The authors show how to use security market data to restrict the admissible region for means and standard deviations of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution of consumers. Their approach (1) is nonparametric and applies to a rich class of models of dynamic economics; (2) characterizes the duality between the mean-standard deviation frontier for intertemporal marginal rates of substitution and the familiar mean-standard deviation frontier for asset returns; and (3) exploits the restriction that intertemporal marginal rates of substitution are positive random variables. The region provides a convenient summary of the sense in which asset market data are anomalous from the vantage point of intertemporal asset pricing theory.

Are consumers effectively insured against idiosyncratic shocks to income or wealth, either by formal institutions such as charities, private insurance, and government programs or by informal mechanisms such as gifts and "loans" from relatives, friends, and neighbors? Under full insurance, consumption growth should be cross-sectionally independent of idiosyncratic variables that are exogenous to consumers. This proposition is tested by cross-sectional regressions of consumption growth on a variety of exogenous variables. Full insurance is rejected for long illness and involuntary job loss, but not for spells of unemployment, loss of work due to strike, and an involuntary move

Purchasing power parity is one of the most important equilibrium conditions in international macroeconomics. Empirically, it is also one of the most hotly contested. Numerous recent studies, for example, have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity using data from the post-Bretton Woods float and have reached different conclusions. We assert that most such studies are flawed for two reasons. First, the post-1973 data contain, by definition, only a very limited amount of the low-frequency information relevant for examination of long-run parity. Second, the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low-frequency dynamics. Both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper, with dramatic results. We construct a new data set of 16 real exchange rates covering more than a century of the classic gold standard period, and we study deviations from parity using long-memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean reversion. For each real exchange rate, we find that purchasing power parity holds in the long run

We develop an overlapping-generations model of endogenous growth in which human capital is the engine of growth and the generations are linked through material and emotional interdependencies within the family. Parents invest in their children to achieve both old-age support (care) and emotional gratification, and material support from children is determined through self-enforcing implicit contracts. We show that optimal intergenerational trade can then lead to maximization of growth opportunities. Our model produces a theory of the "demographic transition" linking longevity, fertility, and economic growth. We also show that while population aging may raise the growth rate, an increase in young-age longevity is likely to produce a greater increase in the growth rate and a reduction in the fertility rate in a growth equilibrium. These predictions and the model's implications concerning the behavior of private savings during the takeoff period appear consistent with empirical evidence.

This paper tests implications of full consumption insurance. The object is to determine how much mileage can be obtained from a model with complete markets, with such features as private information or liquidity constraints omitted. The implication exploited is that individual consumption responds to aggregate risk but not to idiosyncratic risk. The test involves regressing the change in household consumption onto the change in aggregate consumption and other right-hand-side variables such as the change in household income and change in employment status. All variables other than the change in aggregate consumption are predicted to be insignificant in explaining the change in household consumption

This paper provides an analysis of the predictable components of monthly common stock and bond portfolio return. Most of the predictability is associated with sensitivity to economic variables in a rational asset pricing model with multiple betas. The stock market risk premium is the most important for capturing predictable variation of the stock portfolios, while premiums associated with interest rate risks capture predictability of the bond returns. Time variation in the premium for beta risk is more important than changes in the betas

An endogenous growth model is developed that produces convergence in per capita income and growth rates of output. Agents have identical preferences and access to identical technologies of production and investment, but differing levels of initial human capital. A spillover effect of human capital in the investment technology provides below-average human capital agents with a higher rate of return on investment than above-average human capital agents. Thus, below-average human capital agents grow faster than above-average human capital agents. This model explains income convergence of the developed world, regional income convergence within the United States, and intergenerational mobility.

The hypothesis that price discrimination based on willingness-to-pay for quality can occur in multifirm markets is confirmed using microdata on gasoline retailing. A test that discriminates between price structures associated with discrimination and with cost-driven, competitive differentials is developed and implemented with controls for variation in outlet and market characteristics. A second test based on profitability variation rejects a competitive, peak-load pricing explanation for the observed price dispersion. The data suggest that price discrimination at the retail level adds at least nine cents a gallon to the average price of full-service gasoline.

Crime and the fear of crime have a deep negative impact on personal and societalwell-being. Several observed patterns regarding criminal behavior, however, remain inadequately understood. In this analysis, individuals' perceptions (concerning their probabilities of punishment) and choices are determined endogenously, while incorporating the information available to them and how this information is generated within the economy. The resulting dynamic relationships are then studied to examine how criminality might evolve over time, why crime participation rates might differ among societal groups even when they face similar economic fundamentals, and how the features of the economy might affect these rates.