We develop a dynamic theory of managerial turnover in a world in which the quality of the match between a firm and its managers changes stochastically over time. Shocks to managerial productivity are anticipated at the time of contracting but privately observed by the managers. Our key positive result shows that the firm’s optimal retention decisions become more permissive with time. Our key normative result shows that, compared to what is efficient, the firm’s contract induces either excessive retention at all tenure levels or excessive firing at the early stages of the relationship, followed by excessive retention after sufficiently long tenure.

This paper introduces signaling in a global game so as to examine the informational role of policy in coordination environments such as currency crises and bank runs. While exogenous asymmetric information has been shown to select a unique equilibrium, we show that the endogenous information generated by policy interventions leads to multiple equilibria. The policy maker is thus trapped into a position in which self-fulfilling expectations dictate not only the coordination outcome but also the optimal policy. This result does not rely on the freedom to choose out-of-equilibrium beliefs, nor on the policy being a public signal; it may obtain even if the policy is observed with idiosyncratic noise.

We study optimal income taxation when workers’ productivity is stochastic and evolves endogenously because of learning by doing. Learning by doing calls for higher wedges and alters the relation between wedges and tax rates. In a calibrated model, we find that reforming the US tax code brings significant welfare gains and that a simple tax code invariant to past incomes is approximately optimal. We isolate the role of learning by doing by comparing the aforementioned tax code to its counterpart in an economy that is identical to the calibrated one except for the exogeneity of the productivity process. Ignoring learning by doing calls for fundamentally different proposals.