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Estimation of a Life-Cycle Model with Human Capital, Labor Supply, and Retirement

Journal of Political Economy 2024 132(1), 48-95
We estimate a life-cycle model of consumption, human capital investment, and labor supply. The interaction between human capital and labor supply toward the end of the life cycle is most novel. The estimates replicate the main features of the data, in particular the large increase in wages and small increase in labor supply at the beginning of the life cycle and the small decrease in wages but large decrease in labor supply toward the end. We show that incorporating human capital is critical when analyzing changes to Social Security.

Are Americans Saving “Optimally” for Retirement?

Journal of Political Economy 2006 114(4), 607-643
We solve each household’s optimal saving decisions using a life cycle model that incorporates uncertain lifetimes, uninsurable earnings and medical expenses, progressive taxation, government transfers, and pension and social security benefits. With optimal decision rules, we compare, household by household, wealth predictions from the life cycle model using a nationally representative sample. We find, making use of household‐specific earnings histories, that the model accounts for more than 80 percent of the 1992 cross‐sectional variation in wealth. Fewer than 20 percent of households have less wealth than their optimal targets, and the wealth deficit of those who are undersaving is generally small.

On the Intergenerational Transmission of Economic Status

Journal of Political Economy 2019 127(2), 855-921 open access
We present a model in which human capital investments occur over the life cycle and across generations, à la Becker and Tomes. The human capital technology features multiple stages of childhood investments, college, and life cycle accumulation. The model can explain a wide range of intergenerational relationships while remaining empirically consistent with cross-sectional inequality. Much of the latter is determined by early investments in children, so that borrowing constraints faced by young parents are important for understanding the persistence of economic status across generations. Education subsidies, especially early on, can significantly reduce the intergenerational persistence of economic status.