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Poor and Rational: Decision-Making under Scarcity

Journal of Political Economy 2022 130(11), 2862-2897
We investigate the link between poverty and decision-making in a sample of farmers in Zambia, who were given the opportunity to exchange randomly assigned household items for alternative items of similar value. Analyzing a total of 5,842 trading decisions and leveraging multiple sources of variation in financial constraints, we show that exchange asymmetries decrease in magnitude when participants are more constrained. This result is robust to experimental procedures and is not mediated by changes in cognitive performance. Consistent with the interpretation that scarcity leads to more rational decisions by increasing the utility loss from forgone trading, we show that trading probabilities go up when the market value of the items is exogenously increased.

The Origins of Firm Heterogeneity: A Production Network Approach

Journal of Political Economy 2022 130(7), 1765-1804 open access
We explore firm size heterogeneity in production networks. In comprehensive data for Belgium, firms with more customers have higher total sales but lower sales and lower market shares per customer. Downstream factors, especially the number of customers, explain the vast majority of firm size dispersion. We rationalize these facts with a model of network formation and two-dimensional firm heterogeneity. Higher productivity generates more matches and larger market shares among customers. Higher relationship capability generates more customers and higher sales. Model estimates suggest a strong negative correlation between productivity and relationship capability and potentially large welfare gains from improving relationship capability.

Prognostic Accuracy of Presepsis and Intrasepsis Characteristics for Prediction of Cardiovascular Events After a Sepsis Hospitalization

Journal of Political Economy 2022 4(4), e0674
Across two large healthcare systems, intrasepsis factors improved postsepsis cardiovascular risk prediction as compared with presepsis cardiovascular risk profiles. Further exploration of sepsis factors that contribute to postsepsis cardiovascular events is warranted for improved mechanistic and predictive models.