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Futures Trading and Market Information

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(6), 1215-1237
This paper investigates the effect of organized futures trading on information in spot markets. First, a model is developed that relates spot-price behavior and market information. The model can be viewed as a particular efficient markets model; this connection provides additional implications about price behavior and information. Next, price series for six different commodities are investigated for an information effect of futures trading. For each commodity, the empirical evidence indicates that futures trading increases traders' information about forces affecting supply and demand.

A Statistical Theory of Expenditures in Capital Maintenance and Repair

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(5), 917-936
This study introduces an econometric model to explain the determinants of expenditures in capital maintenance and repair and, indirectly, to question the assumption implicit in most investment studies that such expenditures do not "matter" in the process of capital accumulation. The model is estimated by a consistent-systems technique, with data pertaining to the rolling stock of class-I line-haul railways in the United States from 1944-70. The empirical results indicate that maintenance expenditures are determined by gross additions to and retirements from the rolling stock as well as by the cost of funds and the rate of utilization. Moreover, in light of the uncovered rade-offs between maintenance expenditures and gross investment, the paper concludes that in estimating investment models, a proxy for maintenance expenditures should be included among the independent variables.

Futures Trading and Market Information

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(6), 1215-1237
This paper investigates the effect of organized futures trading on information in spot markets. First, a model is developed that relates spot-price behavior and market information. The model can be viewed as a particular efficient markets model; this connection provides additional implications about price behavior and information. Next, price series for six different commodities are investigated for an information effect of futures trading. For each commodity, the empirical evidence indicates that futures trading increases traders' information about forces affecting supply and demand.

Money Illusion and Balance-of-Payments Adjustment

Journal of Political Economy 1976 84(1), 73-82
Money illusion, taking the form of lagged price perceptions and viewed in a competitive general equilibrium context, is shown in this paper to reduce the change in a country's balance of payments attributable to a devaluation of given size. Illusion's effect on adjustment is also shown to be probably greater under flexible than under fixed exchange-rate arrangements. The results contrast with a view that illusion, in disguising real-income changes, facilitates the elimination of a balance-of-payments deficit.