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Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(3), 443-487
We examine an economy in which agents cannot write contracts contingent on future labor income. The agents face aggregate uncertainty in the form of dividend and systematic labor income risk, and also idiosyncratic labor income risk, which is calibrated using the PSID. The agents trade in financial securities to buffer their idiosyncratic income shocks, but the extent of trade is limited by borrowing constraints, short-sales constraints, and transactions costs. By simultaneously considering aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks, we decompose the effect of transactions costs on the equity premium into two components. The direct effect occurs because individuals equate the net-of-cost margins. A second, indirect effect occurs because transactions costs result in individual consumption that more closely tracks individual income. In the simulations we find that the direct effect dominates and that the model can produce a sizable equity premium only if transactions costs are large or the assumed quantity of tradable assets is limited.

The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models

Journal of Political Economy 1991 99(2), 358-384
Monetary models based on cash-in-advance constraints make strong predictions about the stochastic properties of endogeneous variables such as the velocity of circulation of money, the rate of inflation, and real and nominal interest rates. We develop numerical methods to understand these predictions because the models cannot be characterized analytically. We calibrate some cash-in-advance models using driving processes estimated from U. S. time-series data to generate model predictions that are compared to sample statistics. Formulations of the models that generate variability in velocity corresponding to the U.S. data typically fail along other dimensions.

Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing

Journal of Political Economy 1996 104(3), 443-487
The authors examine an economy with aggregate and idiosyncratic income risk in which agents cannot contract on future labor income. Agents trade financial securities to buffer idiosyncratic shocks but the extent of trade is limited by borrowing constraints and transactions costs. The effect of frictions on the equity premium is decomposed into two components: a direct effect due to the equation of net-of-costs margins and an indirect effect due to increased consumption volatility. Simulations suggest that the direct effect dominates and that the model predicts a sizable equity premium only if costs are large or the quantity of tradable assets is limited.

The Variability of Velocity in Cash-in-Advance Models

Journal of Political Economy 1991 99(2), 358-384
Monetary models based on cash-in-advance constraints make strong predictions about the stochastic properties of endogeneous variables such as the velocity of circulation of money, the rate of inflation, and real and nominal interest rates. We develop numerical methods to understand these predictions because the models cannot be characterized analytically. We calibrate some cash-in-advance models using driving processes estimated from U. S. time-series data to generate model predictions that are compared to sample statistics. Formulations of the models that generate variability in velocity corresponding to the U.S. data typically fail along other dimensions.