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Information, Production, and the Term Structure

Journal of Political Economy 1986 94(1), 167-184
The difference between the forward rate of interest implicit in the term structure of interest rates and the expected future spot rate is usually referred to as a liquidity premium. This paper examines the determinants of the liquidity premiums implicit in the term structure of real interest rates using a three-date economy with production. The sign of the liquidity premium is characterized in terms of the parameters that describe the uncertainty in the economy. The results suggest that the liquidity premiums implicit in the real term structure of interest rates may sometimes be negative.

Information, Production, and the Term Structure

Journal of Political Economy 1986 94(1), 167-184
The difference between the forward rate of interest implicit in the term structure of interest rates and the expected future spot rate is usually referred to as a liquidity premium. This paper examines the determinants of the liquidity premiums implicit in the term structure of real interest rates using a three-date economy with production. The sign of the liquidity premium is characterized in terms of the parameters that describe the uncertainty in the economy. The results suggest that the liquidity premiums implicit in the real term structure of interest rates may sometimes be negative.

Testing between Competing Models of Wage and Employment Determination in Unionized Markets

Journal of Political Economy 1986 94(3), S3-S39
Two models of wage and employment determination in unionized markets are routinely exposited. According to one, wage and employment outcomes are on the firm's labor demand curve; according to the other, wages and employment are on the partie' contract curve. This paper spells out an empirical procedure that discriminates between these two models and applies this procedure to the particular case of the newspaper industry and the International Typographical Union. The labor demand curve model is inconsistent with our data, while the contract curve model comes closer to describing our observations.

Gresham's Law or Gresham's Fallacy?

Journal of Political Economy 1986 94(1), 185-199
Gresham's law often takes two forms: the rule that bad money drives out good money and a qualified version of that rule that requires a fixed exchange rate between the two monies. Yet history contradicts both of these forms. In fact, the exchange rate has never been fixed, and we doubt it ever could be. We propose a new version of the law that is more feasible and more consistent with the evidence. It requires a fixed transaction cost of using currencies at nonparprices for the rule to apply. Then denomination determines the fate of good money.

Some Anecdotal Evidence Relating to the Legal Restrictions Theory of the Demand for Money

Journal of Political Economy 1986 94(2), 260-265
According to the legal restrictions theory of the demand for money, characteristics such as denomination and negotiability of interest-bearing debt are what prevents it from being employed as a transactions medium. During the years 1915-27, the government of France used as a financing instrument securities that, by the legal restrictions theory, should have circulated in exchange. An experience by Eleanor Lansing Dulles, attempting to use one of these securities in a purchase, as well as other evidence, suggests that they did not.

Gresham's Law or Gresham's Fallacy?

Journal of Political Economy 1986 94(1), 185-199 open access
Gresham's law often takes two forms: the rule that bad money drives out good money and a qualified version of that rule that requires a fixed exchange rate between the two monies. Yet history contradicts both of these forms. In fact, the exchange rate has never been fixed, and we doubt it ever could be. We propose a new version of the law that is more feasible and more consistent with the evidence. It requires a fixed transaction cost of using currencies at nonparprices for the rule to apply. Then denomination determines the fate of good money.

Some Anecdotal Evidence Relating to the Legal Restrictions Theory of the Demand for Money

Journal of Political Economy 1986 94(2), 260-265
According to the legal restrictions theory of the demand for money, characteristics such as denomination and negotiability of interest-bearing debt are what prevents it from being employed as a transactions medium. During the years 1915-27, the government of France used as a financing instrument securities that, by the legal restrictions theory, should have circulated in exchange. An experience by Eleanor Lansing Dulles, attempting to use one of these securities in a purchase, as well as other evidence, suggests that they did not.