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Higher Education, Mental Ability, and Screening

Journal of Political Economy 1973 81(1), 28-55
Using regression analysis we find that mental ability, education, and background factors are important determinants of earnings at several points in the individual's life cycle. Real social rates of return to education based on this analysis range from 11 percent for those with some college to about 2 percent for those with a Ph.D., while private rates are slightly higher. Rates of return to an undergraduate degree are about 8 percent. We conclude that these returns reflect, in part, the use of education as a relatively inexpensive screening device by employers, and without screening the private returns might be up to 50 percent below those mentioned above.

Stabilization Policy and Lags

Journal of Political Economy 1973 81(4), 847-877
The effects of the length and variability of lags on the conduct of stabilization policy are studied using linear difference equation models. It is shown that long lags by themselves do not impair the effectiveness of active stabilization policy and in fact require its more vigorous use. Variability in lags does reduce the effectiveness of stabilization policy and requires its more cautious use; the relative performance of alternative policies depends upon whether the variability of lags is confined to the direct effects of policy or occurs in the dynamics of the whole system. The cautious use of active stabilization policy is shown to be always stabilizing relative to performance under an inactive policy.

The Allocation of Effort under Uncertainty: The Case of Risk-Averse Behavior

Journal of Political Economy 1973 81(2, Part 1), 376-385
This paper analyzes the labor supply decision of a single economic agent within the expected utility framework. Two formulations of the problem are considered: pure income uncertainty and wage rate uncertainty. In each case, the effects on the labor supply decision of changes in both expected returns and the dispersion of returns (about a constant mean) are investigated. Arguments concerning the "disincentive effects" of uncertainty are shown not to be unambiguously supported by theory.